In order to predict exactly when Covid-19 will peak in Ghana, we need a lot more data than the Ghana Health Service is currently putting out. One of those critical data points is the Hospital Resource Use, which will help us estimate the stress on the healthcare system and when that stress will be at it’s peak.

Here’s why:

  • Without data on healthcare resource use with regards to the outbreak, we can’t really predict when the spread will peak.
  • This has largely to do with the fact that more people will die from the virus if they are not able to get the health care they need.
  • The IHME model used in the US for example, uses the Hospital Resource Use as a key indicator for when the outbreak peaked in the United States
  • Indeed by any indication, it appears Ghana’s Hospital Resource Use is still fairly low. We infer this from the really low number of deaths that have been attributed to the virus after more than 60 days of tracking confirmed cases.
  • As of this writing, there have been 24 deaths out of a total of 5,530 confirmed case – a mortality rate of 0.43%. The number of recoveries, however, is 674 (about 12.2%)
  • For comparison, the US currently has a mortality rate of 6.1% as of this writing; and a Global mortality rate of 6.8%
  • That said, we can tell if the virus is slowing down or speeding up by looking closely at the rate at which cases double. Find out more in Part 2 of this article.

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