In part 1 of our series on the regional distribution of Covid-19 cases in Ghana, we established a strong correlation between population density and the number of confirmed cases in a region. In this piece, we look at the link between urbanisation and the regional case load.

The link:

  • With Ghana being one of the more urbanised countries in Ghana, we wanted to find out if at the regional level there was any link between the rate of urbanisation and a region’s case load.

  • As a bit of context, urbanisation rates among Ghana’s region varies from 90.5% for Greater Accra to 16.3% for the Upper West Region. Ashanti Region is the 2nd most urbanised region with a rate of 60.6%.

  • When we mapped the caseload for each region to its urbanisation rate, we found a correlation value of 0.79, which is below the value for 0.98 that we computed for population density.

  • This suggests that there is a decent link between how urbanised a region is and it’s case load but it’s a weaker correlation when compared to population density. 

  • In general, a more urbanised a region is (Greater Accra, Ashanti, Central, Western and Eastern), the higher the case load. Conversely, the lower the urbanisation rate, the smaller the share of that region’s case load to the national total. 

  • The one region that bucks this trend is the Bono Region. With an urbanisation rate of 52.2%, one would expect it to have a relative case load. However as of Sunday May 23rd, the region had only recorded 1 case to date. 

  • This suggests there are many other factors such as mobility of persons that shapes the spread of the virus. 

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