Perhaps more than any other region in Ghana, the capital region is what comes to most minds when one mentions the concept of a swing region. However, in modeling this year’s parliamentary race we found out that the region lags Central Region in the number of seats that are competitive. Out of the 34 seats in the region, only 7 are classified as “COMPETITIVE”. So what’s going on here?
The deep dive:
- One thing our model showed us was that not all swing regions are created equal. There really are 2 ways for a region to become swing.
- The first type of swing region is one in which both major parties boast significant support in a majority of the seats in the region. This is what we call a “Polarised” swing region. Greater Accra fits this type. Our model counts 27 out of the region’s 34 seats as “SAFE” or “LIKELY” for both the NPP and NDC.
- The second type of swing region is one in which both major parties hold a minority of the seats in the region. This leaves the majority of seats in the region up for grabs in a competitive election. The Central Region fits this bill with 12 out of 23 seats being rated as competitive.
- So for Greater Accra, where can one expect the toughest battles in this year’s race?
- Ablekuma Central – our model gives the NPP a slim 53.6% chance of retaining the seat. The competitiveness of the constituency gives the NDC a 45.8% chance of flipping it. Incumbent: NPP
- Ablekuma South – currently held by the Honorable Oko Vanderpuije, this seat could easily slip into the NDC’s LIKELY column as the party has a 64% chance of retaining it. Still, the NPP could pull off an upset with a 35.7% chance. Incumbent: NDC
- Adentan – a perenially competitive seat, the NPP will have to fight to retain control of this seat in parliament. Our model rates it as competitive with the Honorable Buaben Asamoa having a 42.7% chance of winning re-election. But it’s still more than a 100 days to go to the election, so that gives plenty of time for the incumbent to shore up support. Incumbent: NPP
- Klottey-Korley – another competitive seat, the incumbent NDC has a slim 50.4% chance of holding onto the seat. Incumbent: NDC
- Krowor – currently held by the Honorable Elizabeth Afoley Quaye, Krowor will be very competitive this year. Our model’s forecast for the race gives the NPP a 47% chance of holding onto the seat. Incumbent: NPP
- Ledzokuku – this is one race we will be paying very close attention to. Our model gives the NPP a 35.3% chance of winning the seat but with the recent elevation of the Honorable Okoe Boye to a more public role in the nation’s fight against the pandemic, it will be interesting to see how that could strengthen his position going into the elections. Or could the NDC pull off an upset? Incumbent: NPP
- Madina – the last in our list of competitive races in the capital region. Our model gives the NPP about a 1 in 3 chance of holding onto the seat. We are still over 100 days out so it will be interesting to see how this race plays out on December 7.
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