In part 1 of this series, we looked at the state of the parliamentary race in 6 out of the 12 competitive seats in the Central Region. Let’s continue with our analysis of the remaining six seats.
How they stack up:
- Gomoa Central – the incumbent NPP has a 40.1% chance of retaining this seat. Like most seats in the region, this will be hard fought come December. Incumbent: NPP
- Gomoa East – another toss-up much like Gomoa Central. Interestingly enough there is a 3.1% chance that neither party wins this seat. That remote chance could be a strong independent candidate flipping the seat or a 3rd party like the PPP pulling off an upset. Incumbent: NPP
- Gomoa West – much like Gomoa East, this constituency presents a competitive race with a remote 3.9% chance of a 3rd party winning. The NDC has a 55% chance of winning, while the NPP is following suit with a 41.1% chance of retaining the seat. Incumbent: NPP
- KEEA – the race we will be watching the most this year. KEEA is by far the most competitive parliamentary race in the country. Neither major party has a greater than 50% chance of winning. Our model gives the NDC a 42.8% chance, the NPP a 33.8% chance and a significant 23.4% chance that a third party wins the seat. We will follow up soon with a deeper dive into the mechanics of this particular race. For now, suffice it to say the ‘Ndoum’ effect is very strong here. The PPP came within striking distance of winning the seat in 2016. Could 2020 be their first parliamentary win? Incumbent: NDC
- Mfantseman – another hot race to watch this year. Like KEEA, no party has more than 50% chance of winning. The NPP has a narrow 49.5% while the NDC is following suit with a 44.8% chance. That leaves a 5.7% chance that a 3rd party or independent candidate could win this race. Indeed the parliamentary races are often more competitive than the Presidential race owing to what we term the “Independent” effect. More on that to come. Incumbent: NPP
- Twifo Atii Morkwa – the last on our list and another toss-up with the NDC hanging onto a 55.9% chance of flipping the seat. Incumbent: NPP
