More than any other region in this year’s elections, the Central Region is poised to be the most competitive and potentially the tipping point for deciding the winner of the elections. Of the 23 seats in the region, 12 are rated by our model to be competitive this year.

Here they are:

  • Agona East – our model rates it as a toss-up with the NPP having a 51.7% chance while the NDC sits at a 47% chance. With more than 100 days still to go, it’s really anyone’s race. Incumbent: NDC

  • Ajumako Enyan Esiam – another race that looks a lot like Agona East’s. It’s also a toss-up. Incumbent: NDC

  • Assin North – with a 64% chance of winning, the NPP is not too far from flipping this seat into their “LIKELY” column. Incumbent: NPP

  • Awutu Senya West – with a similar competitiveness profile as Agona East and Ajumako, the showdown in Awutu Senya West is rated as a toss-up (NPP: 51.5% / NDC: 47.1%). The NPP currently holds the seat but can it retain it? Incumbent: NPP

  • Cape Coast North – a seat currently held by the NPP but one where the NDC’s 42.5% chance presents a realistic shot at winning. Expect a tight race as our model also rates this as a toss up. Incumbent: NPP

  • Cape Coast South – the third closest race in the region this year. Our model gives the NPP a 50.9% chance of flipping the seat, while the NDC has a 48.1% chance of holding onto it. The only other races that are more competitive are KEEA and Mfantseman. Incumbent: NDC
  • In part 2 of this piece we take a look at the remaining 6 competitive constituencies: Gomoa (Central, East & West), KEEA, Mfantseman and Twifo Atii Morkwa.

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