To determine which regions will be most competitive in 2020, we analyzed historic voting patterns in each region and compared that to our regional partisan leans.
Here are the top 5:
- #1 – Greater Accra: with a competitiveness score of 98.5, the capital region will be the most crucial region to win this year. Historically winning Greater Accra has perfectly correlated with winning the general elections. It will come down to very tight margins.
- #2 – Central Region: with a competitiveness score of 95.3, this key swing region will be the second battleground after Accra. Like the capital region, winning this region has perfect correlation with winning the national vote.
- #3 – Bono: formerly a part of the swing Brong Ahafo region, the newly created Bono region remains a descent swing region with a competitiveness score of 91.7. Our regional forecasts currently favors it as a swing region with a slight tilt towards an NPP win.
- #4 – Ahafo: another carve-out of the former swing Brong Ahafo region, this newly created region will be moderately competitive this year with a slight tilt towards an NPP win. Our Competitiveness Index rates it as an 90.8.
- #5 – Western: rounding out our list of the top 5, the Western region is also the last of the 5 swing regions in this year election. With a Competitiveness Index of 86.4, the region will not be as competitive as Central, Bono or Ahafo regions but it will be more of a battle ground than the North East region.