To determine which regions will be most competitive in 2020, we analyzed historic voting patterns in each region and compared that to our regional partisan leans. 

Here are the top 5:

  • #2 – Central Region: with a competitiveness score of 95.3, this key swing region will be the second battleground after Accra. Like the capital region, winning this region has perfect correlation with winning the national vote.
  • #3 – Bono: formerly a part of the swing Brong Ahafo region, the newly created Bono region remains a descent swing region with a competitiveness score of 91.7. Our regional forecasts currently favors it as a swing region with a slight tilt towards an NPP win.
  • #4 – Ahafo: another carve-out of the former swing Brong Ahafo region, this newly created region will be moderately competitive this year with a slight tilt towards an NPP win. Our Competitiveness Index rates it as an 90.8.
  • #5 – Western: rounding out our list of the top 5, the Western region is also the last of the 5 swing regions in this year election. With a Competitiveness Index of 86.4, the region will not be as competitive as Central, Bono or Ahafo regions but it will be more of a battle ground than the North East region.

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