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Forecast Update: Regions where John Mahama is getting weaker.

Forecast Update: Regions where John Mahama is getting weaker.

by Kwaku Akoi | Sep 15, 2020 | Analysis, Forecast, Regions

Continuing our deep dive on the outcome of our August poll and it’s implications for the December elections, we now turn our attention to the 12 regions where our model downgraded Mahama’s chances.  The unlucky dozen:  Ahafo – Mahama saw a slight dip in his...
Forecast Update: Regions where Nana Addo is getting stronger

Forecast Update: Regions where Nana Addo is getting stronger

by Kwaku Akoi | Sep 10, 2020 | Analysis, NPP, Re-election

Our regional forecast is now updated with the results of the August Poll and Nana Addo saw his chances improve in 7 out of the 16 regions.  Nana’s lucky seven: Bono East – Interestingly enough, the biggest jump for Nana came from Bono East where his chances...
Electoral Trends: who is swinging and who is not?

Electoral Trends: who is swinging and who is not?

by Kwaku Akoi | Aug 11, 2020 | Analysis, Forecast, Regions

In part 1 of this series, we looked at the potential for the Northern region to become a swing region and for the Western Region to become an NPP stronghold if trends continue. Let’s turn our attention to Ahafo, Bono and North East Region in this piece.  Where...
Electoral Trends: where are the regions going?

Electoral Trends: where are the regions going?

by Kwaku Akoi | Aug 5, 2020 | Analysis, Feature, Regions

Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of...
What chances do the 3rd parties have if they were to combine to take on the NPP & NDC?

What chances do the 3rd parties have if they were to combine to take on the NPP & NDC?

by Kwaku Akoi | Aug 4, 2020 | Analysis, Parliamentary

In part 1 of this series, we explored the share of support that a 3rd party needs to gain in order to be an effective player in how the nation is governed. In this piece, we turn out attention to more tactical approaches for realizing this goal and consider whether or...
The NPP has a 13 seat advantage in Parliament going into the elections

The NPP has a 13 seat advantage in Parliament going into the elections

by Kwaku Akoi | Jul 27, 2020 | Analysis, NPP, Parliamentary

It’s July 2020 and the NPP is heading into an election holding 169 out of the 275 seats in parliament. 2016 was indeed a great year for the ruling party. So, for 2020 we decided to see what the parliamentary map looks like and if the NPP will be able to hold...
Advice for John Mahama: who to pick for VP? (Part 1)

Advice for John Mahama: who to pick for VP? (Part 1)

by Kwaku Akoi | May 29, 2020 | Analysis, NDC

How much does the choice of a VP matter? From a political standpoint, it is the most important decision a presidential candidate has to make. A running mate needs to be someone who is qualified and ready to be president on day 1. From an electoral standpoint, well,...
Nana Addo’s Path To Re-election

Nana Addo’s Path To Re-election

by Kwaku Akoi | May 29, 2020 | Analysis, Feature, Forecast, NPP, Re-election

For the first time in Ghana’s history since the return to multi-party democracy, a sitting incumbent president will face off against his predecessor. For Nana Addo this election is both a refrendum on his performance over the past 3 years and his handling of the...
Forecast Update: Regions where John Mahama is getting weaker.

3 Key Reasons Why The NDC Lost in 2016

by Kwaku Akoi | May 25, 2020 | Analysis, Feature, NDC, NPP, Re-election

In 2016, John Mahama made history as the first incumbent president to lose after one term in office since Ghana returned to multi-party democracy in 1992. So, what went wrong for the NDC? There are many theories one could put forth as reasons why the NDC lost. Some of...
Urbanisation & Covid-19: What’s the link?

Urbanisation & Covid-19: What’s the link?

by Kwaku Akoi | May 25, 2020 | Analysis, Coronavirus, Regions

In part 1 of our series on the regional distribution of Covid-19 cases in Ghana, we established a strong correlation between population density and the number of confirmed cases in a region. In this piece, we look at the link between urbanisation and the regional case...
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