Continuing our deep dive on the outcome of our August poll and it’s implications for the December elections, we now turn our attention to the 12 regions where our model downgraded Mahama’s chances. The unlucky dozen: Ahafo – Mahama saw a slight dip in his...
Our regional forecast is now updated with the results of the August Poll and Nana Addo saw his chances improve in 7 out of the 16 regions. Nana’s lucky seven: Bono East – Interestingly enough, the biggest jump for Nana came from Bono East where his chances...
Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of...
In part 1 of this series, we explored the share of support that a 3rd party needs to gain in order to be an effective player in how the nation is governed. In this piece, we turn out attention to more tactical approaches for realizing this goal and consider whether or...
2016 was not a good year for the NDC. Not only did the party lose the presidency; it also lost a significant number of seats in parliament. Today, Ghana’s legislature is dominated by 169 NPP MPs. The NDC, by contrast holds only 106 seats. That’s a 63 seat...
In part 1 of this series, we started to make the case for John Mahama to pick a Vice Presidential candidate from one of the NDC’s strongholds rather than from a swing region. In this piece, we dive deeper into which regions should top the list of factors to...
One of the most exciting aspects of this year’s election is the question of who will win the 6 newly created regions. This is exactly the kind of question we love to spend hours analysing and building models to answer. What we are forecasting: Ahafo Region: our...
In part 1 of this article series, we defined a stronghold as a region that has been consistently dominated by one party in successive elections. Let’s go deeper into the role strongholds play in winning elections. The role they play in winning: A stronghold...
