Continuing our deep dive on the outcome of our August poll and it’s implications for the December elections, we now turn our attention to the 12 regions where our model downgraded Mahama’s chances. The unlucky dozen: Ahafo – Mahama saw a slight dip in his...
In part 1 of this series, we explored the share of support that a 3rd party needs to gain in order to be an effective player in how the nation is governed. In this piece, we turn out attention to more tactical approaches for realizing this goal and consider whether or...
2016 was not a good year for the NDC. Not only did the party lose the presidency; it also lost a significant number of seats in parliament. Today, Ghana’s legislature is dominated by 169 NPP MPs. The NDC, by contrast holds only 106 seats. That’s a 63 seat...
In part 1 of this series, we started to make the case for John Mahama to pick a Vice Presidential candidate from one of the NDC’s strongholds rather than from a swing region. In this piece, we dive deeper into which regions should top the list of factors to...
How much does the choice of a VP matter? From a political standpoint, it is the most important decision a presidential candidate has to make. A running mate needs to be someone who is qualified and ready to be president on day 1. From an electoral standpoint, well,...
In part 1 of our series on each party’s path to victory we looked at the combination of regions that Nana Addo and the NPP need to win to stay in power. In this piece, we turn our attention to John Mahama who is attempting to stage a historic comeback. His path:...
In 2016, John Mahama made history as the first incumbent president to lose after one term in office since Ghana returned to multi-party democracy in 1992. So, what went wrong for the NDC? There are many theories one could put forth as reasons why the NDC lost. Some of...
A cornerstone of our ability to accurately forecast the outcome of the Presidential elections is a simple concept we call “Regional Partisan Lean”. What it means: Regional Partisan Lean is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given...
In part 1 of this article series, we defined a stronghold as a region that has been consistently dominated by one party in successive elections. Let’s go deeper into the role strongholds play in winning elections. The role they play in winning: A stronghold...
