As of this writing, John Mahama’s chance of a first round win per our model is at 27%; down from a high of 31.4%. This drop is entirely from our August Poll where a combined 28% of voters were either undecided or planning to vote for a 3rd party — both factors...
In part 1 of this series, we looked at the potential for the Northern region to become a swing region and for the Western Region to become an NPP stronghold if trends continue. Let’s turn our attention to Ahafo, Bono and North East Region in this piece. Where...
In part 1 of this series, we explored the share of support that a 3rd party needs to gain in order to be an effective player in how the nation is governed. In this piece, we turn out attention to more tactical approaches for realizing this goal and consider whether or...
2016 was not a good year for the NDC. Not only did the party lose the presidency; it also lost a significant number of seats in parliament. Today, Ghana’s legislature is dominated by 169 NPP MPs. The NDC, by contrast holds only 106 seats. That’s a 63 seat...
In part 1 of our series on each party’s path to victory we looked at the combination of regions that Nana Addo and the NPP need to win to stay in power. In this piece, we turn our attention to John Mahama who is attempting to stage a historic comeback. His path:...
One of the most exciting aspects of this year’s election is the question of who will win the 6 newly created regions. This is exactly the kind of question we love to spend hours analysing and building models to answer. What we are forecasting: Ahafo Region: our...
In part 1 of this article series, we defined a stronghold as a region that has been consistently dominated by one party in successive elections. Let’s go deeper into the role strongholds play in winning elections. The role they play in winning: A stronghold...
