Announcing our parliamentary forecast

Announcing our parliamentary forecast

Our regional forecast has been live for some time now and so it’s only proper we follow up with a look at all 275 constituencies. Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing our partial forecast for parliament starting with the Ahafo region. For now,...
6 new regions: who will win them?

6 new regions: who will win them?

One of the most exciting aspects of this year’s election is the question of who will win the 6 newly created regions. This is exactly the kind of question we love to spend hours analysing and building models to answer.  What we are forecasting: Ahafo Region: our...
The most competitive regions in 2020

The most competitive regions in 2020

To determine which regions will be most competitive in 2020, we analyzed historic voting patterns in each region and compared that to our regional partisan leans.  Here are the top 5: #1 – Greater Accra: with a competitiveness score of 98.5, the capital region...
Introducing our Regional Competitive Index

Introducing our Regional Competitive Index

You’ve probably heard of stronghold vs swing regions. While these two classifiers present somewhat of a binary choice, the reality of how people vote in a region is a bit more nuanced. To that end, we are launching a brand new index that ranks how competitive...
What is a Regional Partisan Lean?

What is a Regional Partisan Lean?

A cornerstone of our ability to accurately forecast the outcome of the Presidential elections is a simple concept we call “Regional Partisan Lean”. What it means: Regional Partisan Lean is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given...