It took some time but our regional forecast is now updated with the results of our August Poll. Here’s where things stand. Highlights: Overall, the shifts in probabilities at the regional level is well in line with what we saw at the national level. Most...
Our forecast model is finally updated with the results of our August poll and the result is a fairly sizable swing in the chances of both candidates as well as the probability of a run-off. The update: After the update, both Nana Addo and John Mahama saw small...
The biggest piece of news from our August poll is the relatively large number of undecided voters 3 months away from Election Day. The 20% of voters who remain undecided will effectively decide the outcome of the election depend on which way the majority of them...
Two weeks and 516 responses later, we now have the results of our August Opinion Poll and there were definitely some minor surprises. Contrary to some of the polls that other outlets have published, our poll revealed about 20% of voters are still undecided!...
Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of...
It’s July 2020 and the NPP is heading into an election holding 169 out of the 275 seats in parliament. 2016 was indeed a great year for the ruling party. So, for 2020 we decided to see what the parliamentary map looks like and if the NPP will be able to hold...
It’s been a month since we last updated our Presidential forecast, and with only 136 days to go to the elections we thought it’s about time to take another look at the state of the race. The big takeaways: Our latest update to the elections forecast is...
Our partial forecast for the parliamentary race in the Bono Region is live and it shows a tight race ahead for the opposition NDC. This fits well with our regional forecast for the Presidential race which gives Nana Addo an overall 66.3% chance of winning the region....
Our partial forecast for parliamentary seats in Ashanti Region is now live and as is to be expected, it shows a very favourable map for the NPP along with 6 competitive races where the NDC may have a shot at winning. The details: Out of the 47 seats in the Ashanti...
Instead of predicting the exact share of votes a candidate will get in the elections, our models compute the chance that that candidate will win 50% + 1 votes. This is what we call a probabilistic forecast and it’s very different from predicting how many votes a...
