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Forecast Update: Regions where John Mahama is getting weaker.

Forecast Update: Regions where John Mahama is getting weaker.

by Kwaku Akoi | Sep 15, 2020 | Analysis, Forecast, Regions

Continuing our deep dive on the outcome of our August poll and it’s implications for the December elections, we now turn our attention to the 12 regions where our model downgraded Mahama’s chances.  The unlucky dozen:  Ahafo – Mahama saw a slight dip in his...
Forecast Update: Regions where Nana Addo is getting weaker

Forecast Update: Regions where Nana Addo is getting weaker

by Kwaku Akoi | Sep 11, 2020 | Analysis, Forecast, Regions

In part 1 of our series on the outcome of our August Poll we looked at the seven regions where our model thinks Nana Addo’s chances are improving. Let’s now turn our attention to the 4 regions where his forecasted chances have dropped a bit. The challenging four: Bono...
Electoral Trends: where are the regions going?

Electoral Trends: where are the regions going?

by Kwaku Akoi | Aug 5, 2020 | Analysis, Feature, Regions

Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of...
The NPP has a 13 seat advantage in Parliament going into the elections

The NPP has a 13 seat advantage in Parliament going into the elections

by Kwaku Akoi | Jul 27, 2020 | Analysis, NPP, Parliamentary

It’s July 2020 and the NPP is heading into an election holding 169 out of the 275 seats in parliament. 2016 was indeed a great year for the ruling party. So, for 2020 we decided to see what the parliamentary map looks like and if the NPP will be able to hold...
Nana Addo’s Path To Re-election

Nana Addo’s Path To Re-election

by Kwaku Akoi | May 29, 2020 | Analysis, Feature, Forecast, NPP, Re-election

For the first time in Ghana’s history since the return to multi-party democracy, a sitting incumbent president will face off against his predecessor. For Nana Addo this election is both a refrendum on his performance over the past 3 years and his handling of the...
Urbanisation & Covid-19: What’s the link?

Urbanisation & Covid-19: What’s the link?

by Kwaku Akoi | May 25, 2020 | Analysis, Coronavirus, Regions

In part 1 of our series on the regional distribution of Covid-19 cases in Ghana, we established a strong correlation between population density and the number of confirmed cases in a region. In this piece, we look at the link between urbanisation and the regional case...
The NPP has a 13 seat advantage in Parliament going into the elections

Stronghold Regions: what are they? (Part 2)

by Kwaku Akoi | Apr 14, 2020 | Analysis, NDC, NPP, Regions

In part 1 of this article series, we defined a stronghold as a region that has been consistently dominated by one party in successive elections. Let’s go deeper into the role strongholds play in winning elections. The role they play in winning: A stronghold...

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