Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of...
It’s July 2020 and the NPP is heading into an election holding 169 out of the 275 seats in parliament. 2016 was indeed a great year for the ruling party. So, for 2020 we decided to see what the parliamentary map looks like and if the NPP will be able to hold...
Our partial forecast for parliamentary seats in Ashanti Region is now live and as is to be expected, it shows a very favourable map for the NPP along with 6 competitive races where the NDC may have a shot at winning. The details: Out of the 47 seats in the Ashanti...
For the first time in Ghana’s history since the return to multi-party democracy, a sitting incumbent president will face off against his predecessor. For Nana Addo this election is both a refrendum on his performance over the past 3 years and his handling of the...
In part 1 of our series on the regional distribution of Covid-19 cases in Ghana, we established a strong correlation between population density and the number of confirmed cases in a region. In this piece, we look at the link between urbanisation and the regional case...
From the regional distribution of Covid-19 data, more than 87% of Ghana’s case load is concentrated in Greater Accra and Ashanti Regions. Here’s why: To better understand the disparity in the distribution of cases among the 16 regions, we run a number of...
When it comes to predicting who will win the elections, some regions are very easy to forecast. Having voted for the same party in each election, these “strongholds” are the least competitive regions and in some ways, not very much worth fighting for. Here are the...
In part 1 of this article series, we defined a stronghold as a region that has been consistently dominated by one party in successive elections. Let’s go deeper into the role strongholds play in winning elections. The role they play in winning: A stronghold...
You may have heard the terms “stronghold” and “swing regions” but what are they and why do they matter so much to the outcome of an election. Why they matter: A party’s stronghold is a region in which a big majority of voters consistently...
