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Electoral Trends: where are the regions going?

Electoral Trends: where are the regions going?

Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of it as the backbone of our historic model. While we’ve written a fair bit about the concept, in this piece, we look ahead past the 2020 elections to see which regions might need to be reclassified.  The trends: Before the 2018...

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What chances do the 3rd parties have if they were to combine to take on the NPP & NDC?

What chances do the 3rd parties have if they were to combine to take on the NPP & NDC?

In part 1 of this series, we explored the share of support that a 3rd party needs to gain in order to be an effective player in how the nation is governed. In this piece, we turn out attention to more tactical approaches for realizing this goal and consider whether or not it makes sense for all 3rd parties to combine into one in order to challenge the NPP-NDC duopoly. Here’s our take: If the 3rd parties will ever have a seat at the table, then they do need to focus on winning parliamentary...

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How many votes does it take for a 3rd party to have a shot?

How many votes does it take for a 3rd party to have a shot?

For some Ghanaians, having to choose between the NPP and NDC presents a limited set of options that’s far from ideal. There are those who do not see the hold both parties have over the nation to be a positive thing. Certainly, that percentage of voters seeking a viable alternative is in the minority as the share of votes won by all 3rd parties was less than 2% of total votes cast in 2016. Hypothetically, if there was such a thing as a viable 3rd party in Ghanaian politics, what is the minimum...

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For PPP, KEEA presents the best shot at winning a seat in parliament.

For PPP, KEEA presents the best shot at winning a seat in parliament.

The electoral history of Ghana’s 4th republic shows a gradual waning in support for the smaller parties that seek to challenge the dominance of the NPP and NDC. In 1996, the PNC won about 3% of all votes cast. In 2016, their share of the vote was a paltry 0.2%. Rather than gain strength in support over time, the PNC like most parties has faded into near oblivion.  This sad tale of the electoral decline of the so-called 3rd parties extends beyond the Presidential race. The 1996 elections saw...

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For the NDC, 2020 presents a challenging parliamentary map

For the NDC, 2020 presents a challenging parliamentary map

2016 was not a good year for the NDC. Not only did the party lose the presidency; it also lost a significant number of seats in parliament. Today, Ghana’s legislature is dominated by 169 NPP MPs. The NDC, by contrast holds only 106 seats. That’s a 63 seat margin!  So, for this year’s elections we decided to look at what the shape of parliamentary map will look like and if the NPP’s 63 seat margin is here to stay or if the NDC can mount a comeback of historic proportion.  The map: Our...

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The most competitive seats in Greater Accra

The most competitive seats in Greater Accra

Perhaps more than any other region in Ghana, the capital region is what comes to most minds when one mentions the concept of a swing region. However, in modeling this year’s parliamentary race we found out that the region lags Central Region in the number of seats that are competitive. Out of the 34 seats in the region, only 7 are classified as “COMPETITIVE”. So what’s going on here? The deep dive: One thing our model showed us was that not all swing regions are created equal. There really are...

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The NPP has a 13 seat advantage in Parliament going into the elections

The NPP has a 13 seat advantage in Parliament going into the elections

It's July 2020 and the NPP is heading into an election holding 169 out of the 275 seats in parliament. 2016 was indeed a great year for the ruling party. So, for 2020 we decided to see what the parliamentary map looks like and if the NPP will be able to hold onto its massive majority. The breakdown: Our approach to modeling the parliamentary race was to come up with a set of probabilities that could classify each constituency as "SAFE", "LIKELY" or "COMPETITIVE" for a given party. A SAFE seat...

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The most competitive seats in Central Region this year (part 2)

The most competitive seats in Central Region this year (part 2)

In part 1 of this series, we looked at the state of the parliamentary race in 6 out of the 12 competitive seats in the Central Region. Let's continue with our analysis of the remaining six seats. How they stack up: Gomoa Central - the incumbent NPP has a 40.1% chance of retaining this seat. Like most seats in the region, this will be hard fought come December. Incumbent: NPP Gomoa East - another toss-up much like Gomoa Central. Interestingly enough there is a 3.1% chance that neither party...

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The most competitive seats in Central Region this year (Part 1)

The most competitive seats in Central Region this year (Part 1)

More than any other region in this year's elections, the Central Region is poised to be the most competitive and potentially the tipping point for deciding the winner of the elections. Of the 23 seats in the region, 12 are rated by our model to be competitive this year. Here they are: Agona East - our model rates it as a toss-up with the NPP having a 51.7% chance while the NDC sits at a 47% chance. With more than 100 days still to go, it's really anyone's race. Incumbent: NDC Ajumako Enyan...

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Forecast Update – Nana Addo & Mahama are down, chance of run-off up slightly

Forecast Update – Nana Addo & Mahama are down, chance of run-off up slightly

It's been a month since we last updated our Presidential forecast, and with only 136 days to go to the elections we thought it's about time to take another look at the state of the race. The big takeaways: Our latest update to the elections forecast is largely driven by the CEI model as it has started pricing in some of the effects of the pandemic on the economy. In short, both Nana Addo and John Mahama saw slight dips to their chances of winning an outright majority while the chance of a...

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For Bono Region, 2020 presents a tight parliamentary map for the NDC

For Bono Region, 2020 presents a tight parliamentary map for the NDC

Our partial forecast for the parliamentary race in the Bono Region is live and it shows a tight race ahead for the opposition NDC. This fits well with our regional forecast for the Presidential race which gives Nana Addo an overall 66.3% chance of winning the region. The map: Out of a total of 12 seats in the Bono Region, our Historic Model expects the NPP to easily win 6 of them. These are all constituencies where the governing party has a greater than 80% chance of winning. The remaining 6...

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June 8 – Covid Update: Cases are doubling every 26 days

June 8 – Covid Update: Cases are doubling every 26 days

Ghana continues to see a relatively flat growth rate in Covid-19 recoveries. In the past week, the share of recoveries has increased from 37.6% to 37.9% while the share of active cases has declined from 62.4% to 62.1%. These two metrics give us one of the most accurate pictures on the state of the pandemic in Ghana. Here's why: One of the most important milestones in the fight against a pandemic is the point at which there are more people who've recovered than there are people who are still...

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Our Historic Model expects 6 competitive races in Ashanti Region this year

Our Historic Model expects 6 competitive races in Ashanti Region this year

Our partial forecast for parliamentary seats in Ashanti Region is now live and as is to be expected, it shows a very favourable map for the NPP along with 6 competitive races where the NDC may have a shot at winning. The details: Out of the 47 seats in the Ashanti Region, our Historic Model awards the NPP a greater than 80% chance of winning in 40 constituencies. The NDC has a 98.4% chance of winning Sekyere Afram Plains. That leaves 6 constituencies where the race is expected to get very...

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Understanding our forecast: what Nana Addo’s 68% chance really means?

Understanding our forecast: what Nana Addo’s 68% chance really means?

Instead of predicting the exact share of votes a candidate will get in the elections, our models compute the chance that that candidate will win 50% + 1 votes. This is what we call a probabilistic forecast and it's very different from predicting how many votes a candidate or party will get. What it means: Elections are very complex phenomena. In Ghana, about 15 million people from many different backgrounds, with many different interests, from every part of the country will cast their votes...

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Covid-19 cases now doubling every 25 days – 16% slower than the previous 21 day rate.

Covid-19 cases now doubling every 25 days – 16% slower than the previous 21 day rate.

Ghana continues to see progress in its fight against Covid-19. As of June 1st, the share of recoveries had climbed to 35%, up from a low of 8.8% three weeks ago. What of the doubling rate? To help determine if cases are speeding up or slow down, we launched a small model that estimates the rate at which cases are doubling. By tracking this metric we are able to see if it's taking longer for the virus to spread or if it's quickening. Per our last update, the doubling rate was 21 days. As of May...

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Announcing our parliamentary forecast

Announcing our parliamentary forecast

Our regional forecast has been live for some time now and so it's only proper we follow up with a look at all 275 constituencies. Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing our partial forecast for parliament starting with the Ahafo region. For now, here's a high-level overview of how we are generating these constituency forecasts. How it works: Our parliamentary forecast shares a lot in common with our Region forecast, albeit on a much smaller scale. For each constituency in a given...

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Advice for John Mahama: who to pick for VP? (Part 2)

Advice for John Mahama: who to pick for VP? (Part 2)

In part 1 of this series, we started to make the case for John Mahama to pick a Vice Presidential candidate from one of the NDC's strongholds rather than from a swing region. In this piece, we dive deeper into which regions should top the list of factors to consider. The deep dive: The NDC has 8 stronghold regions from which to pick a VP: Bono East, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Volta and Western North. So if John Mahama were to pick his running mate from one of the party's...

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