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September Poll: Nana Addo leads but Mahama has gained ground
Our September poll is now complete and the results were fairly surprising. The poll was conducted from September 18th to October 1st by phone and online, using a panel of 762 registered voters. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4. The Results: Nana Addo remains in pole position but his support declined by 6 percentage points from our August Poll. Per our September poll, he now enjoys 40.3% support. In contrast, Mahama’s support grew from 24.8% in our August poll to...
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Forecast Update: Regions where John Mahama is getting weaker.
Continuing our deep dive on the outcome of our August poll and it’s implications for the December elections, we now turn our attention to the 12 regions where our model downgraded Mahama’s chances. The unlucky dozen: Ahafo - Mahama saw a slight dip in his chances here from 24.4% to 21%. Our model continues to view this region as a bit of a long shot for Mahama and a fairly easy win for Nana Addo. Bono - Much like the Ahafo region, Mahama’s chances here have dropped from 26.4% to 24%. Nana...
Forecast Update: Regions where John Mahama is getting stronger.
As of this writing, John Mahama’s chance of a first round win per our model is at 27%; down from a high of 31.4%. This drop is entirely from our August Poll where a combined 28% of voters were either undecided or planning to vote for a 3rd party — both factors severely constraining Mahama’s chances. Once we incorporated the results of our poll, Mahama saw his chances drop in almost all regions except 2. The big caveat though is that given the fact that Nana Addo is the...
Forecast Update: Regions where Nana Addo is getting weaker
In part 1 of our series on the outcome of our August Poll we looked at the seven regions where our model thinks Nana Addo’s chances are improving. Let’s now turn our attention to the 4 regions where his forecasted chances have dropped a bit. The challenging four: Bono - one big surprise from our model update is the drop in Nana Addo’s odds in the Bono Region from 63.8% to 55% after our August poll. Our model’s classification of the region as ’Swing’ remains unchanged but the increase in the...
Forecast Update: Regions where Nana Addo is getting stronger
Our regional forecast is now updated with the results of the August Poll and Nana Addo saw his chances improve in 7 out of the 16 regions. Nana’s lucky seven: Bono East - Interestingly enough, the biggest jump for Nana came from Bono East where his chances climbed from 8.7% prior to the update to 19%. Keep in mind, Bono East is an NDC stronghold so the model’s conclusion from the poll is that NPP is getting more competitive here. Ahafo - Nana Addo’s chances ticked up slightly from 65.5% to...
Regional Forecast Update
It took some time but our regional forecast is now updated with the results of our August Poll. Here’s where things stand. Highlights: Overall, the shifts in probabilities at the regional level is well in line with what we saw at the national level. Most regions saw an increase in the chances of a tie and a decrease in both Nana Addo and Mahama’s chances. Ashanti and Volta Regions were the two exceptions here. The model did not register any changes. This is not surprising as...
Forecast update: Chance of a run-off up, both Nana Addo and Mahama down
Our forecast model is finally updated with the results of our August poll and the result is a fairly sizable swing in the chances of both candidates as well as the probability of a run-off. The update: After the update, both Nana Addo and John Mahama saw small but meaningful dips in their chances of winning a majority of votes on December 7th. Nana Addo’s chances dropped from 64.8% to 60% while Mahama’s chances slipped from 31.4% to 26.7%. Nana Addo still remains the slight...
Why it matters that 20% of voters are undecided?
The biggest piece of news from our August poll is the relatively large number of undecided voters 3 months away from Election Day. The 20% of voters who remain undecided will effectively decide the outcome of the election depend on which way the majority of them break. Here’s why they matter and how our model responded to it. The details: Every incumbent president wants to go into re-election with at least 50% support in polls. The reason for this is that a good performance during the...
Latest Poll: Nana Addo leads but 20% of voters are undecided
Two weeks and 516 responses later, we now have the results of our August Opinion Poll and there were definitely some minor surprises. Contrary to some of the polls that other outlets have published, our poll revealed about 20% of voters are still undecided! Highlights: On the question of choice for president, Nana Addo led with 46.6% support but a whopping 20% of respondents said they were yet to decide on a candidate. John Mahama registered 24.8% of the support with 8.6% saying they plan to...
Our August Opinion Poll is now complete!
The results of our August Poll is in and well, there was quite some news. The national poll was conducted using a combination of phone calls (live caller) and online surveys from August 22nd to September 5. A total of 516 responses were collected across all 16 regions and demographic groups. The details: The poll used a combination of live phone calls and internet surveys. This was to ensure the sample was as representative of the voting populace as possible. A total of 516...
Register for our August Opinion Poll
We will soon launch our August Opinion Poll on the Presidential Election. Join a select group of voters who will be participating in this poll, by filling out the form below. We will notify you once the poll goes live! Loading…
Parliamentary races are more competitive than the Presidential race (part 2)
In part 1 of this series, we outlined two ways by which an independent parliamentary candidate can dramatically alter the outcome of constituency level elections. In this piece, we dig deeper into the different competitive profiles of constituencies to see which ones present the best shot for an upstart independent and which ones are impervious to a wild challenge. The deep dive: The first type of electoral profile is one in which a single party is dominant in both the presidential and...
Electoral Trends: who is swinging and who is not?
In part 1 of this series, we looked at the potential for the Northern region to become a swing region and for the Western Region to become an NPP stronghold if trends continue. Let’s turn our attention to Ahafo, Bono and North East Region in this piece. Where they’re headed: Ahafo used to be part of the reliably ‘swing’ Brong Ahafo region. Today, our model classifies it still as a ‘swing’ region albeit with a slight NPP advantage. Our Presidential forecast gives Nana Addo a...
What type of voter are you?
A core part of our elections forecast model is the notion of ‘strongholds’ and ‘swing regions’. This same notion applies to the parliamentary race at the constituency level. Peel back the layers though and what you find at the root of the bifurcation is the relative shares of the different types of voters that make up the electorate. In this piece we attempt to classify voters into 4 buckets. So what type are you? The Party Loyalist - the first type of voter is of the kind who’s loyalties...
The Independent effect: parliamentary races are more competitive than the presidential race
One of the most surprising findings from modeling the parliamentary race is the relative power of independent candidates to dramatically change electoral outcomes in a given constituency. Since the dawn of the 4th republic, no independent presidential candidate has been able to secure 1% of total votes cast. However, when you look across the 1,650 data points that represent electoral outcomes in parliamentary races since 1996, one sees multiple instances of independent candidates mounting...
Electoral Trends: where are the regions going?
Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of it as the backbone of our historic model. While we’ve written a fair bit about the concept, in this piece, we look ahead past the 2020 elections to see which regions might need to be reclassified. The trends: Before the 2018...
What chances do the 3rd parties have if they were to combine to take on the NPP & NDC?
In part 1 of this series, we explored the share of support that a 3rd party needs to gain in order to be an effective player in how the nation is governed. In this piece, we turn out attention to more tactical approaches for realizing this goal and consider whether or not it makes sense for all 3rd parties to combine into one in order to challenge the NPP-NDC duopoly. Here’s our take: If the 3rd parties will ever have a seat at the table, then they do need to focus on winning parliamentary...
How many votes does it take for a 3rd party to have a shot?
For some Ghanaians, having to choose between the NPP and NDC presents a limited set of options that’s far from ideal. There are those who do not see the hold both parties have over the nation to be a positive thing. Certainly, that percentage of voters seeking a viable alternative is in the minority as the share of votes won by all 3rd parties was less than 2% of total votes cast in 2016. Hypothetically, if there was such a thing as a viable 3rd party in Ghanaian politics, what is the minimum...
For PPP, KEEA presents the best shot at winning a seat in parliament.
The electoral history of Ghana’s 4th republic shows a gradual waning in support for the smaller parties that seek to challenge the dominance of the NPP and NDC. In 1996, the PNC won about 3% of all votes cast. In 2016, their share of the vote was a paltry 0.2%. Rather than gain strength in support over time, the PNC like most parties has faded into near oblivion. This sad tale of the electoral decline of the so-called 3rd parties extends beyond the Presidential race. The 1996 elections saw...
