In part 1 of this article series, we defined a stronghold as a region that has been consistently dominated by one party in successive elections. Let’s go deeper into the role strongholds play in winning elections.
The role they play in winning:
- A stronghold gives a party a base of support on top of which to build a winning a coalition.
- Because elections in Ghana are won by a simple majority, having a reliable base of votes helps a party determine the optimal strategy for racking up a winning tally.
- To win an election, a party needs to determine how big a support it should expect from its strongholds and then subtract that number from the majority needed to win.
- The resulting deficit helps the party determine how many swing voters it needs to carry the day.
- In Ghana, the NPP has 2 populous regions our model classifies as strongholds: Eastern & Ashanti.
- The NDC on the other hand has 8 smaller regions it counts as strongholds: Bono East, North East, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Volta and Western North