In part 1 of this article series, we defined a stronghold as a region that has been consistently dominated by one party in successive elections. Let’s go deeper into the role strongholds play in winning elections.

The role they play in winning:

  • A stronghold gives a party a base of support on top of which to build a winning a coalition.

  • Because elections in Ghana are won by a simple majority, having a reliable base of votes helps a party determine the optimal strategy for racking up a winning tally.

  • To win an election, a party needs to determine how big a support it should expect from its strongholds and then subtract that number from the majority needed to win.

  • The resulting deficit helps the party determine how many swing voters it needs to carry the day.

  • In Ghana, the NPP has 2 populous regions our model classifies as strongholds: Eastern & Ashanti.

  • The NDC on the other hand has 8 smaller regions it counts as strongholds: Bono East, North East, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Volta and Western North
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