Our September poll is now complete and the results were fairly surprising. The poll was conducted from September 18th to October 1st by phone and online, using a panel of 762 registered voters. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.
- Nana Addo remains in pole position but his support declined by 6 percentage points from our August Poll. Per our September poll, he now enjoys 40.3% support.
- In contrast, Mahama’s support grew from 24.8% in our August poll to 33.6% in the September; an almost 9 point jump.
- The share of undecided voters dropped very slightly from 20% to 18.6%.
- And the share of voters not planning to vote for either major party remained relatively steady at 7.5%.
- Overall, the race is tightening. The relatively large share of voters who remain undecided just 2 months ahead of the elections signifies that neither party is really making headway with their message.
- For Mahama, it’s a good sign to have gained so much in the polls but he still trails Nana Addo by a 6 point margin.
- If the undecided voters break along the same lines of support, Nana Addo will be able to win in the first round.
- For Nana Addo, the drop in support is a worrying sign. With 2 months to go, the incumbent president should comfortably be within range of the 50% mark. This suggests the NPP has work to do and shouldn’t consider the election over yet.
- You can view the full set of results here. In the meantime, we are working hard to update our forecast model. Stay tuned.