Regional Partisan Lean is a critical component of our forecast models. It is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given region in a generic election.
It is used by our Polls-Model as a set of internally calibrated expectations for each party’s performance in a poll. Without this metric, our Polls-Model will not be able to accurately judge whether or not to award a bounce in the forecast.
In theory, all partisan leans fall within a range from -100 to +100. In practice though, swing regions will typically show a lean of less than +10 for the leading party, while strongholds will show a lean greater than +10. A negative lean typically implies the party is expected to lose in a generic election, while a lean of 0 shows about a 50% chance of winning or losing.
|REGION||LEADING PARTY||TRAILING PARTY|
|Ahafo||NPP +7.0||NDC -11.3|
|Ashanti||NPP +42.1||NDC -45.1|
|Bono||NPP +6.3||NDC -10.6|
|Bono East||NDC +15.1||NPP -20.4|
|Central||NPP +0.4||NDC -2.8|
|Eastern||NPP +20.1||NDC -25.4|
|Greater Accra||NPP -0.1||NDC -1.5|
|North East||NDC +8.4||NPP -26.2|
|Northern||NDC +14.8||NPP +7.0|
|Oti||NDC +27.9||NPP -35.1|
|Savannah||NDC +20.5||NPP -31.6|
|Upper East||NDC +15.8||NPP -41|
|Upper West||NDC +18.3||NPP -35.8|
|Volta||NDC +77.5||NPP -82.7|
|Western||NPP +8.2||NDC -19.0|
|Western North||NDC +22.8||NPP -27.2|