Regional Partisan Lean

Regional Partisan Lean is a critical component of our forecast models. It is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given region in a generic election.

It is used by our Polls-Model as a set of internally calibrated expectations for each party’s performance in a poll. Without this metric, our Polls-Model will not be able to accurately judge whether or not to award a bounce in the forecast.

In theory, all partisan leans fall within a range from -100 to +100. In practice though, swing regions will typically show a lean of less than +10 for the leading party, while strongholds will show a lean greater than +10. A negative lean typically implies the party is expected to lose in a generic election, while a lean of 0 shows about a 50% chance of winning or losing.

AhafoNPP +7.0NDC -11.3
AshantiNPP +42.1NDC -45.1
BonoNPP +6.3NDC -10.6
Bono EastNDC +15.1NPP -20.4
Central NPP +0.4NDC -2.8
EasternNPP +20.1NDC -25.4
Greater AccraNPP -0.1NDC -1.5
North EastNDC +8.4NPP -26.2
NorthernNDC +14.8NPP +7.0
OtiNDC +27.9NPP -35.1
SavannahNDC +20.5NPP -31.6
Upper EastNDC +15.8NPP -41
Upper WestNDC +18.3NPP -35.8
VoltaNDC +77.5NPP -82.7
WesternNPP +8.2NDC -19.0
Western NorthNDC +22.8NPP -27.2