Regional Partisan Lean is a critical component of our forecast models. It is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given region in a generic election.
It is used by our Polls-Model as a set of internally calibrated expectations for each party’s performance in a poll. Without this metric, our Polls-Model will not be able to accurately judge whether or not to award a bounce in the forecast.
In theory, all partisan leans fall within a range from -100 to +100. In practice though, swing regions will typically show a lean of less than +10 for the leading party, while strongholds will show a lean greater than +10. A negative lean typically implies the party is expected to lose in a generic election, while a lean of 0 shows about a 50% chance of winning or losing.
| REGION | LEADING PARTY | TRAILING PARTY |
| Ahafo | NPP +7.0 | NDC -11.3 |
| Ashanti | NPP +42.1 | NDC -45.1 |
| Bono | NPP +6.3 | NDC -10.6 |
| Bono East | NDC +15.1 | NPP -20.4 |
| Central | NPP +0.4 | NDC -2.8 |
| Eastern | NPP +20.1 | NDC -25.4 |
| Greater Accra | NPP -0.1 | NDC -1.5 |
| North East | NDC +8.4 | NPP -26.2 |
| Northern | NDC +14.8 | NPP +7.0 |
| Oti | NDC +27.9 | NPP -35.1 |
| Savannah | NDC +20.5 | NPP -31.6 |
| Upper East | NDC +15.8 | NPP -41 |
| Upper West | NDC +18.3 | NPP -35.8 |
| Volta | NDC +77.5 | NPP -82.7 |
| Western | NPP +8.2 | NDC -19.0 |
| Western North | NDC +22.8 | NPP -27.2 |
