It took some time but our regional forecast is now updated with the results of our August Poll. Here’s where things stand.
- Overall, the shifts in probabilities at the regional level is well in line with what we saw at the national level.
- Most regions saw an increase in the chances of a tie and a decrease in both Nana Addo and Mahama’s chances.
- Ashanti and Volta Regions were the two exceptions here. The model did not register any changes. This is not surprising as they are the two biggest strongholds for either party and therefore are expected to vote in line with past trends.
- Surprisingly, the biggest shifts towards an increase in the chance of a run-off came from the Western North Region. Prior to the update, the model gave the region a 0.1% chance of a tie between the NPP and NDC. Once the update was complete, that chance had swelled to 14%.
- The Northern region also saw a big jump in the chance of a tie — from 8.4% to 20%. Both regions are NDC strongholds and these huge jumps suggests the model thinks the NPP is getting more competitive in these regions.
- Conversely, 2 regions saw dips in the chances of a tie. This suggests both regions are actually becoming less competitive. In the Upper East region, the chance of a tie dipped very slightly from 11.4% to 10%. The counter movement came from an increase in John Mahama’s chances from 88.3% to 90%.
- The Western Region also became slightly less competitive with the chance of a tie dropping from 19% to 17%, while Nana Addo’s chances increased from 68.2% to 71%.
- Overall, our model appears to think the biggest shifts in support will happen in what are otherwise party strongholds and not just in Central and Greater Accra (which are the tipping point regions this year). We will follow up soon with more detailed looks at each region.