Relative to it’s share of Covid-19 cases in West Africa, Ghana has a really low death rate. The ratio of Ghana’s share of Covid-19 cases to its share of deaths is about 4.3. Here’s what it means: Out of the 26,154 confirmed cases in West Africa, 540...
When we look at the distribution of cases in West Africa, one of the peculiar things that stands out is the relatively high incidence of the virus in Ghana. Here’s why: As of writing, there are about 25,728 cases of the outbreak in West Africa. Ghana currently...
From May 9th to May 18th, the share of recoveries out of the total number of confirmed cases almost quadrupled from 8.82% to 30.74%. That’s good news but there still remains a long way ahead as the share of active cases now stands at 69.26%. Diving deeper: The...
For the past 7 days, the number of new Covid-19 cases in Ghana has consistently declined. The number of recoveries spiked on Thursday May 14th and has shot up by an additional 394 as of this writing. This may seem like good news but it’s too early to call it a...
In this update: A massive jump in recoveries from 674 to 1460. That brings the recovery rate to 25.9%, more than double the 12.2% from the previous day. A total of 108 new cases were...
In part 1 of this article, we outlined some of the key data points and metrics for determining if the spread of the virus is slowing down or speeding up. Here’s what matters: The rate at which new cases double is a crucial indicator of how fast or slow the virus...
In order to predict exactly when Covid-19 will peak in Ghana, we need a lot more data than the Ghana Health Service is currently putting out. One of those critical data points is the Hospital Resource Use, which will help us estimate the stress on the healthcare...
Every 9 days, the number of confirmed cases in Ghana doubles. At this rate, we should see 20,000 cases in less than 3 weeks. Here’s how: Ghana, like many other impacted countries is seeing an exponential growth in the number of cases. (See the graph above) We...
As of this writing, Covid-19 cases in Ghana are doubling every 9 days, but the recovery rate has increased from 9.5% to 12.2%. This and many more insights are what you can glean from our new Covid-19 Tracker. A quick overview: Our Covid-19 Tracker goes beyond...
While our Historic Model is finely tuned to generate a forecast based on past data, the Polls Model does its work using only data from the present. How it works: Through the Vote233 mobile app, we are conducting a series of online polls to measure voter support and...
Our 2020 forecast is generated by a model that blends data from the past with data from the present. The parts of the model that learns from the past is what we call the Historic Model. How it works: Our Historic model is made from 2 sub-models that detect voting...
One of the most exciting aspects of this year’s election is the question of who will win the 6 newly created regions. This is exactly the kind of question we love to spend hours analysing and building models to answer. What we are forecasting: Ahafo Region: our...
When it comes to predicting who will win the elections, some regions are very easy to forecast. Having voted for the same party in each election, these “strongholds” are the least competitive regions and in some ways, not very much worth fighting for. Here are the...
To determine which regions will be most competitive in 2020, we analyzed historic voting patterns in each region and compared that to our regional partisan leans. Here are the top 5: #1 – Greater Accra: with a competitiveness score of 98.5, the capital region...
You’ve probably heard of stronghold vs swing regions. While these two classifiers present somewhat of a binary choice, the reality of how people vote in a region is a bit more nuanced. To that end, we are launching a brand new index that ranks how competitive...
A cornerstone of our ability to accurately forecast the outcome of the Presidential elections is a simple concept we call “Regional Partisan Lean”. What it means: Regional Partisan Lean is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given...
In part 1 of this article, we established that the Central region counts 70% of its constituencies as swing, with only 30% being a sure bet for NPP or NDC. The big picture: Of the 16 swing constituencies in the Central Region, 9 of them tilt slightly...
With the exception of Greater Accra, the Central Region is the only other region that our forecast model classifies as a pure swing region; with no strong advantages for either the NPP or NDC. Here’s why: While the Central region has far fewer people than...
In part 1 of this article, we outlined how the inability of either party to dominate the capital region has led to it being the major swing region in the country. Let’s dive deeper into the constituency-level data. Diving deeper: Of the 34 constituencies in the...
More than any other region in Ghana, the Greater Accra Region has the largest impact on the outcome of our Presidential elections. Here’s why: It is one of the 2 most populous regions in Ghana (the other one is the Ashanti Region) It is decidedly a swing region,...
In part 1 of this article series, we defined a stronghold as a region that has been consistently dominated by one party in successive elections. Let’s go deeper into the role strongholds play in winning elections. The role they play in winning: A stronghold...
You may have heard the terms “stronghold” and “swing regions” but what are they and why do they matter so much to the outcome of an election. Why they matter: A party’s stronghold is a region in which a big majority of voters consistently...
Forecasting an election is never an easy task. I like to think of it as part art part science. There are many ways you can go about it, depending on the type of outcome one is looking to predict. Ultimately though, a good election forecast will correctly predict the...
