Announcing our parliamentary forecast

Announcing our parliamentary forecast

Our regional forecast has been live for some time now and so it’s only proper we follow up with a look at all 275 constituencies. Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing our partial forecast for parliament starting with the Ahafo region. For now,...
John Mahama’s path to a comeback

John Mahama’s path to a comeback

In part 1 of our series on each party’s path to victory we looked at the combination of regions that Nana Addo and the NPP need to win to stay in power. In this piece, we turn our attention to John Mahama who is attempting to stage a historic comeback. His path:...
Is Covid-19 slowing down in Ghana?

Is Covid-19 slowing down in Ghana?

About 5 days ago, I touched on some of the key points to look at when determining if the spread of the virus is slowing down or picking up in Ghana. Since then, I’ve charted the rate at which the share of active cases vs recoveries is growing and the curves are...

Daily Update – May 16th

In this update: A massive jump in recoveries from 674 to 1460. That brings the recovery rate to 25.9%, more than double the 12.2% from the previous day. A total of 108 new cases were...
Covid-19 cases are doubling every 9 days

Covid-19 cases are doubling every 9 days

Every 9 days, the number of confirmed cases in Ghana doubles. At this rate, we should see 20,000 cases in less than 3 weeks. Here’s how: Ghana, like many other impacted countries is seeing an exponential growth in the number of cases. (See the graph above) We...
Launching our Covid-19 Tracker

Launching our Covid-19 Tracker

As of this writing, Covid-19 cases in Ghana are doubling every 9 days, but the recovery rate has increased from 9.5% to 12.2%. This and many more insights are what you can glean from our new Covid-19 Tracker. A quick overview: Our Covid-19 Tracker goes beyond...
6 new regions: who will win them?

6 new regions: who will win them?

One of the most exciting aspects of this year’s election is the question of who will win the 6 newly created regions. This is exactly the kind of question we love to spend hours analysing and building models to answer.  What we are forecasting: Ahafo Region: our...
The least competitive regions in 2020

The least competitive regions in 2020

When it comes to predicting who will win the elections, some regions are very easy to forecast. Having voted for the same party in each election, these “strongholds” are the least competitive regions and in some ways, not very much worth fighting for.  Here are the...
The most competitive regions in 2020

The most competitive regions in 2020

To determine which regions will be most competitive in 2020, we analyzed historic voting patterns in each region and compared that to our regional partisan leans.  Here are the top 5: #1 – Greater Accra: with a competitiveness score of 98.5, the capital region...
Introducing our Regional Competitive Index

Introducing our Regional Competitive Index

You’ve probably heard of stronghold vs swing regions. While these two classifiers present somewhat of a binary choice, the reality of how people vote in a region is a bit more nuanced. To that end, we are launching a brand new index that ranks how competitive...
What is a Regional Partisan Lean?

What is a Regional Partisan Lean?

A cornerstone of our ability to accurately forecast the outcome of the Presidential elections is a simple concept we call “Regional Partisan Lean”. What it means: Regional Partisan Lean is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given...