Our September poll is now complete and the results were fairly surprising. The poll was conducted from September 18th to October 1st by phone and online, using a panel of 762 registered voters. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4. The Results: Nana Addo...
Continuing our deep dive on the outcome of our August poll and it’s implications for the December elections, we now turn our attention to the 12 regions where our model downgraded Mahama’s chances. The unlucky dozen: Ahafo – Mahama saw a slight dip in his...
As of this writing, John Mahama’s chance of a first round win per our model is at 27%; down from a high of 31.4%. This drop is entirely from our August Poll where a combined 28% of voters were either undecided or planning to vote for a 3rd party — both factors...
In part 1 of our series on the outcome of our August Poll we looked at the seven regions where our model thinks Nana Addo’s chances are improving. Let’s now turn our attention to the 4 regions where his forecasted chances have dropped a bit. The challenging four: Bono...
Our regional forecast is now updated with the results of the August Poll and Nana Addo saw his chances improve in 7 out of the 16 regions. Nana’s lucky seven: Bono East – Interestingly enough, the biggest jump for Nana came from Bono East where his chances...
It took some time but our regional forecast is now updated with the results of our August Poll. Here’s where things stand. Highlights: Overall, the shifts in probabilities at the regional level is well in line with what we saw at the national level. Most...
Our forecast model is finally updated with the results of our August poll and the result is a fairly sizable swing in the chances of both candidates as well as the probability of a run-off. The update: After the update, both Nana Addo and John Mahama saw small...
The biggest piece of news from our August poll is the relatively large number of undecided voters 3 months away from Election Day. The 20% of voters who remain undecided will effectively decide the outcome of the election depend on which way the majority of them...
Two weeks and 516 responses later, we now have the results of our August Opinion Poll and there were definitely some minor surprises. Contrary to some of the polls that other outlets have published, our poll revealed about 20% of voters are still undecided!...
The results of our August Poll is in and well, there was quite some news. The national poll was conducted using a combination of phone calls (live caller) and online surveys from August 22nd to September 5. A total of 516 responses were collected across all 16 regions...
We will soon launch our August Opinion Poll on the Presidential Election. Join a select group of voters who will be participating in this poll, by filling out the form below. We will notify you once the poll goes live! Loading…
In part 1 of this series, we outlined two ways by which an independent parliamentary candidate can dramatically alter the outcome of constituency level elections. In this piece, we dig deeper into the different competitive profiles of constituencies to see which ones...
In part 1 of this series, we looked at the potential for the Northern region to become a swing region and for the Western Region to become an NPP stronghold if trends continue. Let’s turn our attention to Ahafo, Bono and North East Region in this piece. Where...
A core part of our elections forecast model is the notion of ‘strongholds’ and ‘swing regions’. This same notion applies to the parliamentary race at the constituency level. Peel back the layers though and what you find at the root of the bifurcation is the relative...
One of the most surprising findings from modeling the parliamentary race is the relative power of independent candidates to dramatically change electoral outcomes in a given constituency. Since the dawn of the 4th republic, no independent presidential candidate has...
Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of...
In part 1 of this series, we explored the share of support that a 3rd party needs to gain in order to be an effective player in how the nation is governed. In this piece, we turn out attention to more tactical approaches for realizing this goal and consider whether or...
For some Ghanaians, having to choose between the NPP and NDC presents a limited set of options that’s far from ideal. There are those who do not see the hold both parties have over the nation to be a positive thing. Certainly, that percentage of voters seeking a...
The electoral history of Ghana’s 4th republic shows a gradual waning in support for the smaller parties that seek to challenge the dominance of the NPP and NDC. In 1996, the PNC won about 3% of all votes cast. In 2016, their share of the vote was a paltry 0.2%. Rather...
2016 was not a good year for the NDC. Not only did the party lose the presidency; it also lost a significant number of seats in parliament. Today, Ghana’s legislature is dominated by 169 NPP MPs. The NDC, by contrast holds only 106 seats. That’s a 63 seat...
Perhaps more than any other region in Ghana, the capital region is what comes to most minds when one mentions the concept of a swing region. However, in modeling this year’s parliamentary race we found out that the region lags Central Region in the number of seats...
It’s July 2020 and the NPP is heading into an election holding 169 out of the 275 seats in parliament. 2016 was indeed a great year for the ruling party. So, for 2020 we decided to see what the parliamentary map looks like and if the NPP will be able to hold...
In part 1 of this series, we looked at the state of the parliamentary race in 6 out of the 12 competitive seats in the Central Region. Let’s continue with our analysis of the remaining six seats. How they stack up: Gomoa Central – the incumbent NPP has a...
More than any other region in this year’s elections, the Central Region is poised to be the most competitive and potentially the tipping point for deciding the winner of the elections. Of the 23 seats in the region, 12 are rated by our model to be competitive...
It’s been a month since we last updated our Presidential forecast, and with only 136 days to go to the elections we thought it’s about time to take another look at the state of the race. The big takeaways: Our latest update to the elections forecast is...
Our partial forecast for the parliamentary race in the Bono Region is live and it shows a tight race ahead for the opposition NDC. This fits well with our regional forecast for the Presidential race which gives Nana Addo an overall 66.3% chance of winning the region....
Ghana continues to see a relatively flat growth rate in Covid-19 recoveries. In the past week, the share of recoveries has increased from 37.6% to 37.9% while the share of active cases has declined from 62.4% to 62.1%. These two metrics give us one of the most...
Our partial forecast for parliamentary seats in Ashanti Region is now live and as is to be expected, it shows a very favourable map for the NPP along with 6 competitive races where the NDC may have a shot at winning. The details: Out of the 47 seats in the Ashanti...
Instead of predicting the exact share of votes a candidate will get in the elections, our models compute the chance that that candidate will win 50% + 1 votes. This is what we call a probabilistic forecast and it’s very different from predicting how many votes a...
Ghana continues to see progress in its fight against Covid-19. As of June 1st, the share of recoveries had climbed to 35%, up from a low of 8.8% three weeks ago. What of the doubling rate? To help determine if cases are speeding up or slow down, we launched a small...
Our regional forecast has been live for some time now and so it’s only proper we follow up with a look at all 275 constituencies. Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing our partial forecast for parliament starting with the Ahafo region. For now,...
In part 1 of this series, we started to make the case for John Mahama to pick a Vice Presidential candidate from one of the NDC’s strongholds rather than from a swing region. In this piece, we dive deeper into which regions should top the list of factors to...
How much does the choice of a VP matter? From a political standpoint, it is the most important decision a presidential candidate has to make. A running mate needs to be someone who is qualified and ready to be president on day 1. From an electoral standpoint, well,...
In part 1 of our series on each party’s path to victory we looked at the combination of regions that Nana Addo and the NPP need to win to stay in power. In this piece, we turn our attention to John Mahama who is attempting to stage a historic comeback. His path:...
For the first time in Ghana’s history since the return to multi-party democracy, a sitting incumbent president will face off against his predecessor. For Nana Addo this election is both a refrendum on his performance over the past 3 years and his handling of the...
Parts 1 and 2 of this series established voter turnout and economic conditions respectively as follow-on effects from Covid-19 that will shape the outcome of the December elections. In this final installment in our series we turn our attention to a less rigidly...
In part 1 of this series, we highlighted how the Covid-19 outbreak could yield a reduction in voter turnout come December. In this piece, we analyse the effect of the outbreak through the lens of the economic impact it will have. At a glance: All around the world the...
Before the Covid-19 outbreak in Ghana, the December elections were going to be historic in one sense: a rematch between a one-term former president and the sitting incumbent. Now, with more than 6,800 cases in Ghana the Covid-19 outbreak adds an extra layer of...
In 2016, John Mahama made history as the first incumbent president to lose after one term in office since Ghana returned to multi-party democracy in 1992. So, what went wrong for the NDC? There are many theories one could put forth as reasons why the NDC lost. Some of...
In part 1 of our series on the regional distribution of Covid-19 cases in Ghana, we established a strong correlation between population density and the number of confirmed cases in a region. In this piece, we look at the link between urbanisation and the regional case...
From the regional distribution of Covid-19 data, more than 87% of Ghana’s case load is concentrated in Greater Accra and Ashanti Regions. Here’s why: To better understand the disparity in the distribution of cases among the 16 regions, we run a number of...
It was just 2 weeks ago that the exponential growth curve of Covid-19 cases in Ghana showed a doubling rate of every 9 days. However, with a spike in recoveries and a flattening of the rate at which new cases are now being confirmed, we are now seeing the doubling...
About 5 days ago, I touched on some of the key points to look at when determining if the spread of the virus is slowing down or picking up in Ghana. Since then, I’ve charted the rate at which the share of active cases vs recoveries is growing and the curves are...
As of this writing, about 1,898 infected Ghanaians have recovered from Covid-19. That’s 30% of all recoveries in the ECOWAS region. Here’s the breakdown: According to the Africa CDC, Ghana leads the entire West Africa in the number of recoveries, with...
