Our partial forecast for parliamentary seats in Ashanti Region is now live and as is to be expected, it shows a very favourable map for the NPP along with 6 competitive races where the NDC may have a shot at winning.

The details:

  • Out of the 47 seats in the Ashanti Region, our Historic Model awards the NPP a greater than 80% chance of winning in 40 constituencies.

  • The NDC has a 98.4% chance of winning Sekyere Afram Plains.

  • That leaves 6 constituencies where the race is expected to get very interesting – Ahafo Ano North, Ahafo Ano South East, Asawase, Ejura Sekyedumase, New Edubease and Offinso North.

  • All 6 constituencies present a race where neither party crosses the 80% win probability threshold for the seat to be considered safe.

  • Ahafo Ano South East presents the NPP’s best case with a 76.4% chance of winning. That’s a healthy position to be in about 6 months from the election. It’s not absurd for this seat to shift into the safe column for the NPP.

  • For the NDC, Ejura Sekyedumase presents the best case with a 67.5% chance of winning.

  • However, the most interesting case is the Asawase race where competition was very tight in 2016. Based on our Historic Model’s projection the race this year should be another dead heat. The best case scenario gives the NPP a 54.3% chance of flipping the seat but that’s still a massive 46.7% chance of losing.

  • This will be a closely watched race as the incumbent MP, the Honourable Muntaka is also the current minority leader in parliament.

  • We are continuing to work our way through all 275 constituencies. For now, head over to our page on the Ashanti race to peruse all 47 projections. Or checkout our forecast for the Ahafo race.

  • Given the fact that this partial forecast is based on historical data alone it may not be adequately capturing more recent shifts in voter support. Once we start incorporating polling data into the forecast expect these numbers to change.
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