For the first time in Ghana’s history since the return to multi-party democracy, a sitting incumbent president will face off against his predecessor. For Nana Addo this election is both a refrendum on his performance over the past 3 years and his handling of the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak. Where does his path to re-election lie?

How he can win:

  • In 2016, Nana Addo won by combining strong support in the NPP’s core strongholds (Ashanti and Eastern) with respectable wins in all 4 swing regions: Brong Ahafo, Central, Greater Accra and Western.

  • In 2020, well, the electoral map is a little different. Brong Ahafo and Western are now split into multiple regions. So what will Nana Addo’s path to victory look like this time around?

  • Our Regional forecast gives Nana Addo his strongest chances in Ashanti and Eastern, as one would expect, plus decent odds of winning 2 of the 3 regions that formerly comprised Brong Ahafo: Bono (+6.3 NPP) and Ahafo (+7.0 NPP).

  • Additionally, he is a decent favourite to win Western (+8.2 NPP) but not Western North.

  • Winning Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, Bono and Western Regions will get him close to victory but not enough to cross the finish line.

  • To do this, he will need to win Greater Accra – the biggest prize of all; and or Central Region.

  • In theory, he can win re-election without Central Region provided he can rack up respectable win-margins in the regions listed above while also making the North a bit more competitive. It’s still a risky bet to forego a win in the Central Region.

  • As of May 29, our forecast gives Nana Addo a 68.3% chance of winning the election in a first round. That path to victory will run right through the heart of the capital region.
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