Our regional forecast has been live for some time now and so it’s only proper we follow up with a look at all 275 constituencies.
Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing our partial forecast for parliament starting with the Ahafo region. For now, here’s a high-level overview of how we are generating these constituency forecasts.
How it works:
- Our parliamentary forecast shares a lot in common with our Region forecast, albeit on a much smaller scale.
- For each constituency in a given region, our Historic model begins by computing multiple Constituency Partisan Leans for the NDC, NPP and all other parties combined using different distribution of weights to account for recency and other factors.
- These disparate leans are then averaged for each constituency, before the averages are then converted into a vote share projection.
- The vote share projections are then used as the baseline for simulating the elections thousands of times in the constituency. Based on the simulations we then calculate the probability of each party winning as well as the probability of a tie.
- Our first set of forecasts are ready for the Ahafo region. Next up is the Ashanti region.
- Once we start polling for specific constituencies, we will be updating the forecast with the polling data.
- Stay tuned!
