In part 1 of our series on each party’s path to victory we looked at the combination of regions that Nana Addo and the NPP need to win to stay in power. In this piece, we turn our attention to John Mahama who is attempting to stage a historic comeback.

His path:

  • Per our national forecast, John Mahama has a bit of an uphill battle in this year’s election. As of May 28th, our Historic Forecast gives him a 29.9% chance of winning.

  • If he’s to make history again, what’s his best path to victory? Mahama’s loss in 2016 was complicated by huge drops in voter turnout in 2 key strongholds: Volta and Northern regions.

  • As a starting point for 2020, he needs to turn out more of his core supporters in these key regions. Because elections in Ghana are won by a simple majority, every vote counts (even in your core strongholds).

  • But winning all 8 of the NDC’s strongholds won’t be enough. This is because the NDC typically dominates the less populated and less urbanised regions.

  • As such he needs to bag some wins in Swing regions. An easy one for him to win per our model is the North East Region, where our regional forecast gives him a 71.1% chance of winning.

  • Further down south, he needs to win Greater Accra and Central by large margins and make Western a lot more competitive.

  • Perhaps a bit more difficult will be pulling off a win in Ahafo and Bono regions, since those swing regions favour the NPP.

  • Who knows? His choice of a running mate might yet play an influential role in his path to victory.
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