While our Historic Model is finely tuned to generate a forecast based on past data, the Polls Model does its work using only data from the present.
How it works:
- Through the Vote233 mobile app, we are conducting a series of online polls to measure voter support and sentiment ahead of the December elections.
- It is these polls that are fed to an algorithm that generates a forecast.
- The Polls Model looks at each new poll result in the context of all prior polls in order to determine in which direction voter support is trending for parties in the election.
- Once a trend is establish, the model then looks ahead to election date to see what the results will look like under a set of conditions that range from the trend holding steady to the extreme where the trend reverses.
- As such the more polls we run leading up the election, the more and more accurate the Polls-Model gets.
- The predictions from our Polls-Model are then combined with the Historic Model to yield the final forecast: a probabilistic view of the likeliest outcome given present voter support and historic voting patterns.