In part 1 of this article, we outlined how the inability of either party to dominate the capital region has led to it being the major swing region in the country. Let’s dive deeper into the constituency-level data.
- Of the 34 constituencies in the region, the NPP dominates in only 11 (~32%), with an average lean of +22.2 in its stronghold constituencies.
- Additionally, there are 7 (~25%) swing constituencies that tilt slightly towards the NPP with an average lean of only +4.1
- For the NDC, there are only 9 constituencies (~26%) that count as strongholds, with an average lean of +41.
- That leaves 7 swing constituencies that tilt slightly towards the NDC with an average lean of only +4.8
- In sum, about 58% of constituencies in Greater Accra are either an NPP or NDC stronghold.
- The remaining 42% are swing constituencies with an even lean of +4 between both parties. At the end of the day, winning the elections comes down to very small margins for NPP or NDC.
- At the time of writing this piece, our regional forecast gives either party an even 41% chance of winning the majority of votes in the region.