Western North Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 9 constituencies of the Western North Region

*Based on Historic trends only
UPDATED JULY 17 2020
NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (8)

6 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Bia East
  • Bia West
  • Bodi
  • Juabeso
  • Sefwi Akontonmbra
  • Suaman

2 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Aowin
  • Sefwi Wiawso
COMPETITIVE SEATS (1)

1 Competitive Seat (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Bibiani Anhwiaso Bekwai

 

Aowin

LIKELY NDC
  • NDC 79.4% 79.4%
  • NPP 17.8% 17.8%
  • OTHER 2.8% 2.8%

Bia East

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 99.3% 99.3%
  • NPP 0.7% 0.7%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Bia West

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 98.9% 98.9%
  • NPP 1.1% 1.1%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Bibiani Anhwiaso Bekwai

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 58.3% 58.3%
  • NDC 40.9% 40.9%
  • OTHER 0.8% 0.8%

Bodi

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 96.9% 96.9%
  • NPP 3.1% 3.1%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Juabeso

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 89.9% 89.9%
  • NPP 10% 10%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Sefwi Akontonmbra

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 83.3% 83.3%
  • NPP 16.7% 16.7%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Sefwi Wiawso

LIKELY NDC
  • NDC 76.4% 76.4%
  • NPP 23.6% 23.6%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Suaman

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 81.2% 81.2%
  • NPP 18.8% 18.8%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

Learn More

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