Western Constituency Forecast
Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 17 constituencies of the Western Region
*Based on Historic trends only UPDATED JULY 17 2020
NPP SEATS (11)
8 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)
- Ahanta West
- Effia
- Essikado Ketan
- Evalue Ajomoro Gwira
- Kwesimintsim
- Sekondi
- Tarkoradi
- Tarkwa-Nsuaem
3 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)
- Amenfi East
- Ellembele
- Mpohor
NDC SEATS (2)
2 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)
- Amenfi Central
- Amenfi West
0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)
COMPETITIVE SEATS (4)
4 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)
- Jomoro
- Prestea Huni Valley
- Shama
- Wassa East
Ahanta West
SAFE NPP
- NPP 86.6%
- NDC 13.3%
- OTHER 0.1%
Amenfi Central
SAFE NDC
- NDC 80.1%
- NPP 19.9%
- OTHER 0%
Amenfi East
LIKELY NPP
- NPP 71.1%
- NDC 29.9%
- OTHER 0%
Amenfi West
SAFE NDC
- NDC 80.1%
- NPP 19.9%
- OTHER 0%
Effia
SAFE NPP
- NPP 92.7%
- NDC 7.2%
- OTHER 0.1%
Ellembele
LIKELY NPP
- NPP 68.5%
- NDC 25.7%
- OTHER 5.8%
Essikado Ketan
SAFE NPP
- NPP 92.5%
- NDC 7.5%
- OTHER 0%
Evalue Ajomoro Gwira
SAFE NPP
- NPP 89.1%
- NDC 10.8%
- OTHER 0.1%
Jomoro
COMPETITIVE
- NDC 41.8%
- NPP 34.5%
- OTHER 23.7%
Kwesimintsim
SAFE NPP
- NPP 92.4%
- NDC 7.5%
- OTHER 0.1%
Mpohor
LIKELY NPP
- NPP 67.8%
- NDC 27.1%
- OTHER 5.1%
Prestea Huni Valley
COMPETITIVE
- NPP 60.6%
- NDC 35.3%
- OTHER 4.1%
Sekondi
SAFE NPP
- NPP 85.2%
- NDC 14.8%
- OTHER 0%
Shama
COMPETITIVE
- NPP 58%
- NDC 33.4%
- OTHER 8.6%
Takoradi
SAFE NPP
- NPP 97%
- NDC 3%
- OTHER 0%
Tarkwa-Nsuaem
SAFE NPP
- NPP 84.1%
- NDC 15.8%
- OTHER 0.1%
Wassa East
COMPETITIVE
- NDC 47.9%
- NPP 47.1%
- OTHER 5%
How does Vote233 forecast the elections?
Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.
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