Western Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 17 constituencies of the Western Region

*Based on Historic trends only
UPDATED JUNE 19 2020

Legend:

Blue: NPP ( > 80% chance of winning) | Purple: Competitive | Green: NDC ( > 80% chance of winning)

Ahanta West

  • NPP 93.8% 93.8%
  • NDC 6.2% 6.2%

Amenfi Central

  • NDC 78.9% 78.9%
  • NPP 21.1% 21.1%

Amenfi East

  • NPP 74.6% 74.6%
  • NDC 25.4% 25.4%

Amenfi West

  • NDC 81.1% 81.1%
  • NPP 18.9% 18.9%

Effia

  • NPP 94.5% 94.5%
  • NDC 5.5% 5.5%

Ellembele

  • NDC 51.3% 51.3%
  • NPP 48.7% 48.7%

Essikado Ketan

  • NPP 94.7% 94.7%
  • NDC 5.3% 5.3%

Evalue Ajomoro Gwira

  • NPP 70.1% 70.1%
  • NDC 29.9% 29.9%

Jomoro

  • NDC 57.2% 57.2%
  • NPP 42.8% 42.8%

Kwesimintsim

  • NPP 98.3% 98.3%
  • NDC 1.7% 1.7%

Mpohor

  • NPP 76.6% 76.6%
  • NDC 23.4% 23.4%

Prestea Huni Valley

  • NPP 56.5% 56.5%
  • NDC 43.5% 43.5%

Sekondi

  • NPP 88.5% 88.5%
  • NDC 11.5% 11.5%

Shama

  • NPP 63.8% 63.8%
  • NDC 36.2% 36.2%

Takoradi

  • NPP 98.2% 98.2%
  • NDC 1.8% 1.8%

Tarkwa-Nsuaem

  • NPP 88.5% 88.5%
  • NDC 11.5% 11.5%

Wassa East

  • NDC 58% 58%
  • NPP 42% 42%

All Regions

WESTERN REGION

Safe NPP - 6

Competitive - 10

Safe NDC - 1

WESTERN NORTH REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 1

Safe NDC - 8

AHAFO REGION

Safe NPP - 1

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 0

ASHANTI REGION

Safe NPP - 40

Competitve - 6

Safe NDC - 1

BONO REGION

Safe NPP - 6

Competitive - 6

Safe NDC - 0

BONO EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 6

CENTRAL REGION

Safe NPP - 5

Competitive - 17

Safe NDC - 1

EASTERN REGION

Safe NPP - 23

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 5

GREATER ACCRA REGION

Safe NPP - 9

Competitive - 15

Safe NDC - 10

NORTH EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 3

Safe NDC - 3

NORTHERN REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 9

Safe NDC - 9

OTI REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 1

Safe NDC - 7

SAVANNAH REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 0

Safe NDC - 7

UPPER EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 2

Safe NDC - 13

UPPER WEST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 3

Safe NDC - 8

VOLTA REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 0

Safe NDC - 18

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

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