Western Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 17 constituencies of the Western Region

*Based on Historic trends only
UPDATED JULY 17 2020
NPP SEATS (11)

8 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Ahanta West
  • Effia
  • Essikado Ketan
  • Evalue Ajomoro Gwira
  • Kwesimintsim
  • Sekondi
  • Tarkoradi
  • Tarkwa-Nsuaem

3 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Amenfi East
  • Ellembele
  • Mpohor
NDC SEATS (2)

2 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Amenfi Central
  • Amenfi West

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

COMPETITIVE SEATS (4)

4 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Jomoro
  • Prestea Huni Valley
  • Shama
  • Wassa East

Ahanta West

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 86.6% 86.6%
  • NDC 13.3% 13.3%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Amenfi Central

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 80.1% 80.1%
  • NPP 19.9% 19.9%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Amenfi East

LIKELY NPP
  • NPP 71.1% 71.1%
  • NDC 29.9% 29.9%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Amenfi West

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 80.1% 80.1%
  • NPP 19.9% 19.9%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Effia

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 92.7% 92.7%
  • NDC 7.2% 7.2%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Ellembele

LIKELY NPP
  • NPP 68.5% 68.5%
  • NDC 25.7% 25.7%
  • OTHER 5.8% 5.8%

Essikado Ketan

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 92.5% 92.5%
  • NDC 7.5% 7.5%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Evalue Ajomoro Gwira

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 89.1% 89.1%
  • NDC 10.8% 10.8%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Jomoro

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 41.8% 41.8%
  • NPP 34.5% 34.5%
  • OTHER 23.7% 23.7%

Kwesimintsim

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 92.4% 92.4%
  • NDC 7.5% 7.5%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Mpohor

LIKELY NPP
  • NPP 67.8% 67.8%
  • NDC 27.1% 27.1%
  • OTHER 5.1% 5.1%

Prestea Huni Valley

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 60.6% 60.6%
  • NDC 35.3% 35.3%
  • OTHER 4.1% 4.1%

Sekondi

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 85.2% 85.2%
  • NDC 14.8% 14.8%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Shama

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 58% 58%
  • NDC 33.4% 33.4%
  • OTHER 8.6% 8.6%

Takoradi

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 97% 97%
  • NDC 3% 3%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Tarkwa-Nsuaem

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 84.1% 84.1%
  • NDC 15.8% 15.8%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Wassa East

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 47.9% 47.9%
  • NPP 47.1% 47.1%
  • OTHER 5% 5%

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

Learn More

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