Upper West Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 11 constituencies of the Upper West Region

*Based on historic trends only
UPDATED JULY 17 2020

NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (8)

7 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

Daffiama Bussie Issa
Jirapa
Lambussie
Lawra
Nadowli Kaleo
Nandom
Wa West

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

Wa Central

COMPETITIVE SEATS (3)

3 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

Sissala East
Sissala West
Wa East

Daffiama Bussie Issa

SAFE NDC

NDC 88.9% 88.9%
NPP 10.1% 10.1%
OTHER 0% 0%

Jirapa

SAFE NDC

NDC 97.1% 97.1%
OTHER 1.5% 1.5%
NPP 1.4% 1.4%

Lambussie

SAFE NDC

NDC 84.3% 84.3%
NPP 15.5% 15.5%
OTHER 0.2% 0.2%

Lawra

SAFE NDC

NDC 82.1% 82.1%
NPP 17.7% 17.7%
OTHER 0.2% 0.2%

Nadowli Kaleo

SAFE NDC

NDC 90% 90%
NPP 9.8% 9.8%
OTHER 0.2% 0.2%

Nandom

SAFE NDC

NDC 87% 87%
NPP 13% 13%
OTHER 0% 0%

Sissala East

COMPETITIVE

NPP 39.8% 39.8%
NDC 36.4% 36.4%
OTHER 23.8% 23.8%

Sissala West

COMPETITIVE

NDC 53.8% 53.8%
NPP 37.9% 37.9%
OTHER 8.3% 8.3%

Wa Central

LIKELY NDC

NDC 70.9% 70.9%
NPP 19.5% 19.5%
OTHER 9.6% 9.6%

Wa East

COMPETITIVE

NDC 49.1% 49.1%
NPP 39.8% 39.8%
OTHER 11.1% 11.1%

Wa West

SAFE NDC

NDC 99.6% 99.6%
NPP 0.2% 0.2%
OTHER 0.2% 0.2%

All Regions

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

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