Upper East Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 15 constituencies of the Upper East Region

*Based on Historic trends only
UPDATED JULY 17 2020
NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (11)

8 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Binduri
  • Bolgatanga Central
  • Bolgatanga East
  • Builsa North
  • Builsa South
  • Chiana Paga
  • Garu
  • Nabdam

3 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Pusiga
  • Talensi
  • Zebilla
COMPETITIVE SEATS (4)

4 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Bawku Central
  • Bongo
  • Navrongo Central
  • Tempane

Bawku Central

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 60.7% 60.7%
  • NPP 37.4% 37.4%
  • OTHER 2.9% 2.9%

Binduri

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 93.1% 93.1%
  • NPP 6.9% 6.9%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Bolgatanga Central

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 99.4% 99.4%
  • NPP 0.4% 0.4%
  • OTHER 0.2% 0.2%

Bolgatanga East

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 99.4% 99.4%
  • NPP 0.3% 0.3%
  • OTHER 0.3% 0.3%

Bongo

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 50.9% 50.9%
  • OTHER 32.4% 32.4%
  • NPP 16.7% 16.7%

Builsa North

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 99.4% 99.4%
  • NPP 0.4% 0.4%
  • OTHER 0.2% 0.2%

Builsa South

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 98.7% 98.7%
  • OTHER 0.4% 0.4%
  • NPP 0.2% 0.2%

Chiana Paga

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 98.3% 98.3%
  • NPP 1.4% 1.4%
  • OTHER 0.3% 0.3%

Garu

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 95% 95%
  • NPP 5% 5%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Nabdam

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 89.9% 89.9%
  • NPP 10% 10%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Navrongo Central

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 51.6% 51.6%
  • NDC 41.6% 41.6%
  • OTHER 6.8% 6.8%

Pusiga

LIKELY NDC
  • NDC 72.9% 72.9%
  • OTHER 14.4% 14.4%
  • NPP 12.7% 12.7%

Talensi

LIKELY NDC
  • NDC 71.9% 71.9%
  • NPP 16% 16%
  • OTHER 12.1% 12.1%

Tempane

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 64% 64%
  • NPP 24.6% 24.6%
  • OTHER 11.4% 11.4%

Zebilla

LIKELY NDC
  • NDC 67.5% 67.5%
  • NPP 19.4% 19.4%
  • OTHER 13.1% 13.1%

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

Learn More

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