Upper East Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 15 constituencies of the Upper East Region

*Based on Historic trends only
UPDATED JUNE 19 2020

Legend:

Blue: NPP ( > 80% chance of winning) | Purple: Competitive | Green: NDC ( > 80% chance of winning)

Bawku Central

  • NDC 74.5% 74.5%
  • NPP 25.5% 25.5%

Binduri

  • NDC 98.5% 98.5%
  • NPP 1.5% 1.5%

Bolgatanga Central

  • NDC 91.9% 91.9%
  • NPP 8.1% 8.1%

Bolgatanga East

  • NDC 85.7% 85.7%
  • NPP 14.3% 14.3%

Bongo

  • NDC 85.2% 85.2%
  • NPP 14.8% 14.8%

Builsa North

  • NDC 94.8% 94.8%
  • NPP 5.2% 5.2%

Builsa South

  • NDC 82.6% 82.6%
  • NPP 17.4% 17.4%

Chiana Paga

  • NDC 95.6% 95.6%
  • NPP 4.4% 4.4%

Garu

  • NDC 93.8% 93.8%
  • NPP 6.2% 6.2%

Nabdam

  • NDC 88.9% 88.9%
  • NPP 11.1% 11.1%

Navrongo Central

  • NDC 62.4% 62.4%
  • NPP 37.6% 37.6%

Pusiga

  • NDC 94.6% 94.6%
  • NPP 5.4% 5.4%

Talensi

  • NDC 82.3% 82.3%
  • NPP 17.7% 17.7%

Tempane

  • NDC 87.8% 87.8%
  • NPP 12.2% 12.2%

Zebilla

  • NDC 86.9% 86.9%
  • NPP 13.1% 13.1%

All Regions

UPPER WEST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 3

Safe NDC - 8

VOLTA REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 0

Safe NDC - 18

WESTERN REGION

Safe NPP - 6

Competitive - 10

Safe NDC - 1

WESTERN NORTH REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 1

Safe NDC - 8

AHAFO REGION

Safe NPP - 1

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 0

ASHANTI REGION

Safe NPP - 40

Competitve - 6

Safe NDC - 1

BONO REGION

Safe NPP - 6

Competitive - 6

Safe NDC - 0

BONO EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 6

CENTRAL REGION

Safe NPP - 5

Competitive - 17

Safe NDC - 1

EASTERN REGION

Safe NPP - 23

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 5

GREATER ACCRA REGION

Safe NPP - 9

Competitive - 15

Safe NDC - 10

NORTH EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 3

Safe NDC - 3

NORTHERN REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 9

Safe NDC - 9

OTI REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 1

Safe NDC - 7

SAVANNAH REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 0

Safe NDC - 7

UPPER EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 2

Safe NDC - 13

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

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