Northern Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 18 constituencies of the Bono Region

*Based on Historic trends only
UPDATED JUNE 18 2020

Legend:

Blue: NPP ( > 80% chance of winning) | Purple: Competitive | Green: NDC ( > 80% chance of winning)

Bimbilla

  • NPP 77.6% 77.6%
  • NDC 22.4% 22.4%

Gushiegu

  • NDC 51.7% 51.7%
  • NPP 48.3% 48.3%

Karaga

  • NDC 83.5% 83.5%
  • NPP 16.5% 16.5%

Kpandai

  • NDC 83% 83%
  • NPP 17% 17%

Kumbungu

  • NDC 99.5% 99.5%
  • NPP 0.5% 0.5%

Mion

  • NDC 82.9% 82.9%
  • NPP 17.1% 17.1%

Nantong

  • NDC 62.8% 62.8%
  • NPP 37.2% 37.2%

Saboba

  • NDC 55.4% 55.4%
  • NPP 44.6% 44.6%

Sagnarigu

  • NDC 99.9% 99.9%
  • NPP 0% 0%

Savelugu

  • NDC 87.1% 87.1%
  • NPP 12.9% 12.9%

Tamale Central

  • NDC 97.5% 97.5%
  • NPP 2.5% 2.5%

Tamale North

  • NDC 99.9% 99.9%
  • NPP 0% 0%

Tamale South

  • NDC 99.9% 99.9%
  • NPP 0.1% 0.1%

Tatale Sanguli

  • NDC 68.8% 68.8%
  • NPP 31.2% 31.2%

Tolon

  • NDC 53.8% 53.8%
  • NPP 46.2% 46.2%

Wulensi

  • NDC 52.6% 52.6%
  • NPP 47.4% 47.4%

Yendi

  • NPP 78.2% 78.2%
  • NDC 21.8% 21.8%

Zabzugu

  • NPP 51.2% 51.2%
  • NDC 48.8% 48.8%

All Regions

NORTHERN REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 9

Safe NDC - 9

OTI REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 1

Safe NDC - 7

SAVANNAH REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 0

Safe NDC - 7

UPPER EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 2

Safe NDC - 13

UPPER WEST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 3

Safe NDC - 8

VOLTA REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 0

Safe NDC - 18

WESTERN REGION

Safe NPP - 6

Competitive - 10

Safe NDC - 1

WESTERN NORTH REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 1

Safe NDC - 8

AHAFO REGION

Safe NPP - 1

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 0

ASHANTI REGION

Safe NPP - 40

Competitve - 6

Safe NDC - 1

BONO REGION

Safe NPP - 6

Competitive - 6

Safe NDC - 0

BONO EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 6

CENTRAL REGION

Safe NPP - 5

Competitive - 17

Safe NDC - 1

EASTERN REGION

Safe NPP - 23

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 5

GREATER ACCRA REGION

Safe NPP - 9

Competitive - 15

Safe NDC - 10

NORTH EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 3

Safe NDC - 3

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

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