Northern Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 18 constituencies of the Northern Region

*Based on Historic trends only
UPDATED JULY 17 2020
NPP SEATS (2)

2 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Bimbilla
  • Yendi

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (8)

7 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Karaga
  • Kumbungu
  • Sagnarigu
  • Savelugu
  • Tamale Central
  • Tamale North
  • Tamale South

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Kpandai
COMPETITIVE SEATS (8)

8 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Gushiegu
  • Mion
  • Nantong
  • Saboba
  • Tatale Sanguli
  • Tolon
  • Wulensi
  • Zabzugu

Bimbilla

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 91.6% 91.6%
  • NDC 8.3% 8.3%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Gushiegu

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 54.6% 54.6%
  • NDC 45.1% 45.1%
  • OTHER 0.3% 0.3%

Karaga

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 93.7% 93.7%
  • NPP 6.1% 6.1%
  • OTHER 0.2% 0.2%

Kpandai

LIKELY NDC
  • NDC 72.1% 72.1%
  • NPP 22.6% 22.6%
  • OTHER 5.3% 5.3%

Kumbungu

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 94.7% 94.7%
  • NPP 4.9% 4.9%
  • OTHER 0.4% 0.4%

Mion

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 58.1% 58.1%
  • NPP 27.5% 27.5%
  • OTHER 14.4% 14.4%

Nantong

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 59% 59%
  • NPP 37.9% 37.9%
  • OTHER 3.1% 3.1%

Saboba

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 46.8% 46.8%
  • NPP 46.1% 46.1%
  • OTHER 7.3% 7.3%

Sagnarigu

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 99.9% 99.9%
  • NPP 0.1% 0.1%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Savelugu

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 96.8% 96.8%
  • NPP 3.1% 3.1%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Tamale Central

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 95.3% 95.3%
  • NPP 4.7% 4.7%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Tamale North

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 98.6% 98.6%
  • NPP 1.3% 1.3%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Tamale South

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 99.9% 99.9%
  • NPP 0.1% 0.1%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Tatale Sanguli

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 52.2% 52.2%
  • NPP 32.3% 32.3%
  • OTHER 15.5% 15.5%

Tolon

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 52.8% 52.8%
  • NPP 45.5% 45.5%
  • OTHER 1.7% 1.7%

Wulensi

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 42.5% 42.5%
  • NDC 39.8% 39.8%
  • OTHER 17.7% 17.7%

Yendi

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 84.7% 84.7%
  • NDC 15.2% 15.2%
  • OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Zabzugu

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 50.9% 50.9%
  • NDC 46.7% 46.7%
  • OTHER 2.4% 2.4%

All Regions

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

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