North East Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 6 constituencies of the North East Region

*Based on Historic trends only
UPDATED JULY 17 2020
NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (2)

2 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Yagaba Kubori
  • Yunyoo

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

COMPETITIVE SEATS (4)

4 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Bunkpurugu
  • Chereponi
  • Nalerigu Gambaga
  • Walewale

Bunkpurugu

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 61.3% 61.3%
  • NPP 26% 26%
  • OTHER 12.7% 12.7%

Chereponi

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 51.8% 51.8%
  • NPP 43.2% 43.2%
  • OTHER 5% 5%

Nalerigu Gambaga

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 59.9% 59.9%
  • NPP 32.5% 32.5%
  • OTHER 7.6% 7.6%

Walewale

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 51.5% 51.5%
  • NDC 38.7% 38.7%
  • OTHER 9.8% 9.8%

Yagaba-Kubori

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 94.4% 94.4%
  • NPP 5.6% 5.6%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Yunyoo

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 95.3% 95.3%
  • NPP 4.7% 4.7%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

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