Eastern Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 33 constituencies of the Eastern Region

*Based on the trends only
UPDATED JULY 17 2020

NPP SEATS (25)

24 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

Abetifi
Abirem
Abuakwa North
Achiase
Akim Abuakwa South
Akim Oda
Akim Swedru
Akuapem North
Akuapem South
Asene Akroso Manso
Atiwa East
Atiwa West
Ayensuano
Fanteakwa South
Kade
Lower West Akim
Mpraeso
New Juaben North
New Juaben South
Nkawkaw
Nsawam Adoagyiri
Ofoase Ayirebi
Okere
Suhum

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

Fanteakwa North

NDC SEATS (6)

5 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

Afram Plains North
Afram Plains South
Lower Manya Krobo
Upper Manya Krobo
Yilo Krobo

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

Upper West Akim

COMPETITIVE SEATS (2)

2 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

Akwatia
Asuogyaman

Abetifi

SAFE NPP

NPP 97.8% 97.8%
NDC 2.2% 2.2%
OTHER 0% 0%

Abirem

SAFE NPP

NPP 89.9% 89.9%
NDC 10.1% 10.1%
OTHER 0% 0%

Abuakwa North

SAFE NPP

NPP 92.4% 92.4%
NDC 7.6% 7.6%
OTHER 0% 0%

Achiase

SAFE NPP

NPP 99% 99%
NDC 1% 1%
OTHER 0% 0%

Afram Plains North

SAFE NDC

NDC 99.9% 99.9%
NPP 0.1% 0.1%
OTHER 0% 0%

Afram Plains South

SAFE NDC

NDC 94.5% 94.5%
NPP 5.5% 5.5%
OTHER 0% 0%

Akim Abuakwa South

SAFE NPP

NPP 99.9% 99.9%
NDC 0.1% 0.1%
OTHER 0% 0%

Akim Oda

SAFE NPP

NPP 98.7% 98.7%
NDC 1.3% 1.3%
OTHER 0% 0%

Akim Swedru

SAFE NPP

NPP 98% 98%
NDC 2% 2%
OTHER 0% 0%

Akuapem North

SAFE NPP

NPP 95.1% 95.1%
NDC 4.8% 4.8%
OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Akuapem South

SAFE NPP

NPP 92.7% 92.7%
NDC 7.2% 7.2%
OTHER 0.1% 0.1%

Akwatia

COMPETITIVE

NPP 59.7% 59.7%
NDC 33.7% 33.7%
OTHER 6.6% 6.6%

Asene Akroso Manso

SAFE NPP

NPP 97.3% 97.3%
NDC 2.7% 2.7%
OTHER 0% 0%

Asuogyaman

COMPETITIVE

NDC 65.4% 65.4%
NPP 34.6% 34.6%
OTHER 0% 0%

Atiwa East

SAFE NPP

NPP 99.9% 99.9%
NDC 0.1% 0.1%
OTHER 0% 0%

Atiwa West

SAFE NPP

NPP 99.9% 99.9%
NDC 0.1% 0.1%
OTHER 0% 0%

Ayensuano

SAFE NPP

NPP 83.1% 83.1%
NDC 16.9% 16.9%
OTHER 0% 0%

Fanteakwa North

LIKELY NPP

NPP 77.5% 77.5%
NDC 22.5% 22.5%
OTHER 0% 0%

Fanteakwa South

SAFE NPP

NPP 96.4% 96.4%
NDC 3.6% 3.6%
OTHER 0% 0%

Kade

SAFE NPP

NPP 97.1% 97.1%
NDC 2.9% 2.9%
OTHER 0% 0%

Lower Manya Krobo

SAFE NDC

NDC 93.8% 93.8%
NPP 6.2% 6.2%
OTHER 0% 0%

Lower West Akim

SAFE NPP

NPP 86.3% 86.3%
NDC 13.7% 13.7%
OTHER 0% 0%

Mpraeso

SAFE NPP

NPP 99% 99%
NDC 1% 1%
OTHER 0% 0%

New Juaben North

SAFE NPP

NPP 99.2% 99.2%
NDC 0.8% 0.8%
OTHER 0% 0%

New Juaben South

SAFE NPP

NPP 92.9% 92.9%
NDC 7.1% 7.1%
OTHER 0% 0%

Nkawkaw

SAFE NPP

NPP 98.7% 98.7%
NDC 1.3% 1.3%
OTHER 0% 0%

Nsawam Adoagyiri

SAFE NPP

NPP 84.2% 84.2%
NDC 15.8% 15.8%
OTHER 0% 0%

Ofoase Ayirebi

SAFE NPP

NPP 99.5% 99.5%
NDC 0.3% 0.3%
OTHER 0.2% 0.2%

Okere

SAFE NPP

NPP 93.8% 93.8%
NDC 6.2% 6.2%
OTHER 0% 0%

Suhum

SAFE NPP

NPP 80.8% 80.8%
NDC 19.2% 19.2%
OTHER 0% 0%

Upper Manya Krobo

SAFE NDC

NDC 84.5% 84.5%
NPP 15.5% 15.5%
OTHER 0% 0%

Upper West Akim

LIKELY NDC

NDC 74.8% 74.8%
NPP 25.2% 25.2%
OTHER 0% 0%

Yilo Krobo

SAFE NDC

NDC 91.1% 91.1%
NPP 8.9% 8.9%
OTHER 0% 0%

GREATER ACCRA REGION

NPP SEATS (15)

10 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

Ablekuma North
Ablekuma West
Anyaa Sowutuom
Dome Kwabenya
Okaikoi Central
Okaikoi South
Tema Central
Tema West
Trobu
Weija Gbawe

5 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

Ayawaso Central
Ayawaso West Wuogon
Bortianor Ngleshie Amanfro
Okaikoi North
Tema East

NDC SEATS (12)