Central Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 23 constituencies of the Central Region

*Based on historic trends only
UPDATED JUNE 15 2020

Legend:

Blue: NPP ( > 80% chance of winning) | Purple: Competitive | Green: NDC ( > 80% chance of winning)

Abura Asebu Kwamankese

  • NDC 71.9% 71.9%
  • NPP 28.1% 28.1%

Agona East

  • NPP 56.2% 56.2%
  • NDC 43.8% 43.8%

Agona West

  • NPP 80.0% 80.0%
  • NDC 20% 20%

Ajumako Enyan Esiam

  • NPP 55.7% 55.7%
  • NDC 44.3% 44.3%

Asikuma Odoben Brakwa

  • NPP 68.4% 68.4%
  • NDC 31.6% 31.6%

Assin Central

  • NPP 91.5% 91.5%
  • NDC 8.5% 8.5%

Assin North

  • NPP 57.3% 57.3%
  • NDC 42.7% 42.7%

Assin South

  • NPP 85.5% 85.5%
  • NDC 14.5% 14.5%

Awutu Senya East

  • NPP 76.9% 76.9%
  • NDC 23.1% 23.1%

Awutu Senya West

  • NPP 66% 66%
  • NDC 34% 34%

Cape Coast North

  • NPP 54.9% 54.9%
  • NDC 45.1% 45.1%

Cape Coast South

  • NPP 52.7% 52.7%
  • NDC 47.3% 47.3%

Effutu

  • NPP 66.1% 66.1%
  • NDC 33.9% 33.9%

Ekumfi

  • NDC 93.3% 93.3%
  • NPP 6.7% 6.7%

Gomoa Central

  • NDC 59.1% 59.1%
  • NPP 40.9% 40.9%

Gomoa East

  • NDC 55.5% 55.5%
  • NPP 44.5% 44.5%

Gomoa West

  • NDC 59.2% 59.2%
  • NPP 40.8% 40.8%

Hemang Lower Denkyira

  • NPP 78.2% 78.2%
  • NDC 21.8% 21.8%

Komenda Edina Eguafo Abrem

  • NDC 70.6% 70.6%
  • NPP 29.4% 29.4%

Mfantseman

  • NDC 58.4% 58.4%
  • NPP 41.6% 41.6%

Twifo Atii Morkwa

  • NDC 67% 67%
  • NPP 33% 33%

Upper Denkyira East

  • NPP 94.5% 94.5%
  • NDC 5.5% 5.5%

Upper Denkyira West

  • NPP 91.7% 91.7%
  • NDC 9.3% 9.3%

All Regions

CENTRAL REGION

Safe NPP - 5

Competitive - 17

Safe NDC - 1

EASTERN REGION

Safe NPP - 23

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 5

GREATER ACCRA REGION

Safe NPP - 9

Competitive - 15

Safe NDC - 10

NORTH EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 3

Safe NDC - 3

NORTHERN REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 9

Safe NDC - 9

OTI REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 1

Safe NDC - 7

SAVANNAH REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 0

Safe NDC - 7

UPPER EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 2

Safe NDC - 13

UPPER WEST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 3

Safe NDC - 8

VOLTA REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 0

Safe NDC - 18

WESTERN REGION

Safe NPP - 6

Competitive - 10

Safe NDC - 1

WESTERN NORTH REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 1

Safe NDC - 8

AHAFO REGION

Safe NPP - 1

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 0

ASHANTI REGION

Safe NPP - 40

Competitve - 6

Safe NDC - 1

BONO REGION

Safe NPP - 6

Competitive - 6

Safe NDC - 0

BONO EAST REGION

Safe NPP - 0

Competitive - 5

Safe NDC - 6

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

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