Central Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 23 constituencies of the Central Region

*Based on historic trends only
UPDATED JULY 17 2020
NPP SEATS (9)

5 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Agona West
  • Assin Central
  • Assin South
  • Upper Denkyira East
  • Upper Denkyira West

4 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Asikuma Odoben Brakwa
  • Awutu Senya East
  • Effutu
  • Hemang Lower Denkyira
NDC SEATS (2)

1 Safe Seat (>80% chance of winning)

  • Ekumfi

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Abura Asebu Kwamankese
COMPETITIVE SEATS (12)

12 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Agona East
  • Ajumako Enyan Esiam
  • Assin North
  • Awutu Senya West
  • Cape Coast North
  • Cape Coast South
  • Gomoa Central
  • Gomoa East
  • Gomoa West
  • Mfantseman
  • Twifo Atii Morkwa

Abura Asebu Kwamankese

LIKELY NDC
  • NDC 76.1% 76.1%
  • NPP 23.9% 23.9%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Agona East

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 51.7% 51.7%
  • NDC 47% 47%
  • OTHER 1.3% 1.3%

Agona West

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 82.8% 82.8%
  • NDC 17.2% 17.2%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Ajumako Enyan Esiam

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 51.3% 51.3%
  • NPP 48% 48%
  • OTHER 0.7% 0.7%

Asikuma Odoben Brakwa

LIKELY NPP
  • NPP 66.8% 66.8%
  • NDC 33.2% 33.2%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Assin Central

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 90.1% 90.1%
  • NDC 9.9% 9.9%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Assin North

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 64.2% 64.2%
  • NDC 34% 34%
  • OTHER 1.8% 1.8%

Assin South

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 81.1% 81.1%
  • NDC 18.9% 18.9%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Awutu Senya East

LIKELY NPP
  • NPP 79.7% 79.7%
  • NDC 20.3% 20.3%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Awutu Senya West

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 51.5% 51.5%
  • NDC 47.1% 47.1%
  • OTHER 1.4% 1.4%

Cape Coast North

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 56.4% 56.4%
  • NDC 42.5% 42.5%
  • OTHER 1% 1%

Cape Coast South

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 50.9% 50.9%
  • NPP 48.1% 48.1%
  • OTHER 1% 1%

Effutu

LIKELY NPP
  • NPP 78.9% 78.9%
  • NDC 21.1% 21.1%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Ekumfi

SAFE NDC
  • NDC 97% 97%
  • NPP 3% 3%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Gomoa Central

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 59.9% 59.9%
  • NPP 40.1% 40.1%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Gomoa East

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 52.5% 52.5%
  • NPP 44.4% 44.4%
  • OTHER 3.1% 3.1%

Gomoa West

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 55% 55%
  • NPP 41.1% 41.1%
  • OTHER 3.9% 3.9%

Hemang Lower Denkyira

LIKELY NPP
  • NPP 69% 69%
  • NDC 24.5% 24.5%
  • OTHER 16.5% 16.5%

Komenda Edina Eguafo Abrem

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 42.8% 42.8%
  • NPP 33.8% 33.8%
  • OTHER 23.4% 23.4%

Mfantseman

COMPETITIVE
  • NPP 49.5% 49.5%
  • NDC 44.8% 44.8%
  • OTHER 5.7% 5.7%

Twifo Atii Morkwa

COMPETITIVE
  • NDC 55.9% 55.9%
  • NPP 43.8% 43.8%
  • OTHER 0.3% 0.3%

Upper Denkyira East

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 88.6% 88.6%
  • NDC 11.4% 11.4%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Upper Denkyira West

SAFE NPP
  • NPP 86.3% 86.3%
  • NDC 13.7% 13.7%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

EASTERN REGION

NPP SEATS (25)

24 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Abetifi
  • Abirem
  • Abuakwa North
  • Achiase
  • Akim Abuakwa South
  • Akim Oda
  • Akim Swedru
  • Akuapem North
  • Akuapem South
  • Asene Akroso Manso
  • Atiwa East
  • Atiwa West
  • Ayensuano
  • Fanteakwa South
  • Kade
  • Lower West Akim
  • Mpraeso
  • New Juaben North
  • New Juaben South
  • Nkawkaw
  • Nsawam Adoagyiri
  • Ofoase Ayirebi
  • Okere
  • Suhum

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Fanteakwa North
NDC SEATS (6)

5 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Afram Plains North
  • Afram Plains South
  • Lower Manya Krobo
  • Upper Manya Krobo
  • Yilo Krobo

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Upper West  Akim
COMPETITIVE SEATS (2)

2 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Akwatia
  • Asuogyaman
FULL FORECAST