Ahafo Constituency Forecast

Our Model’s partial forecast for the NDC and NPP’s win probabilities in all 6 constituencies of the Ahafo Region

*Based on Historic trends only
UPDATED JULY 17 2020
NPP SEATS (4)

1 Safe Seat (>80% chance of winning)

  • Tano North

3 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Asunafo North
  • Asutifi North
  • Tano South
NDC SEATS (1)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Asutifi South
COMPETITIVE SEATS (1)

1 Competitive Seat (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Asunafo South

Asunafo North

Likely NPP
  • NPP 78.8% 78.8%
  • NDC 21.2% 21.2%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Asunafo South

Competitive
  • NDC 55.9% 55.9%
  • NPP 43.6% 43.6%
  • OTHER 0.5% 0.5%

Asutifi North

Likely NPP
  • NPP 78.4% 78.4%
  • NDC 21.6% 21.6%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Asutifi South

Likely NDC
  • NDC 67.7% 67.7%
  • NPP 32.3% 32.3%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Tano North

Safe NPP
  • NPP 83.1% 83.1%
  • NDC 16.9% 16.9%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

Tano South

Likely NPP
  • NPP 76.5% 76.5%
  • NDC 23.5% 23.5%
  • OTHER 0% 0%

ASHANTI REGION

NPP SEATS (43)

40 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Adansi Asokwa
  • Afigya Kwabre North
  • Afigya Kwabre South
  • Afigya Sekyere East
  • Ahafo Ano Southwest
  • Akrofuom
  • Asante Akim Central
  • Asante Akim North
  • Asante Akim South
  • Asokwa
  • Atwima Kwanwoma
  • Atwima Mponua
  • Atwima Nwabiagya North
  • Atwima Nwabiagya South
  • Bantama
  • Bekwai
  • Bosome Freho
  • Bosomtwe
  • Efiduase Asokore
  • Ejisu
  • Fomena
  • Juaben
  • Kumawu
  • Kwabre East
  • Kwadaso
  • Mampong
  • Manhyia North
  • Manhyia South
  • Manso Adubia
  • Manso Nkwanta
  • Nhyiaeso
  • Nsuta Kwamang Beposo
  • Obuasi East
  • Obuasi West
  • Odotobri
  • Offinso South
  • Oforikrom
  • Old Tafo
  • Suame
  • Subin

3 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Ahafo Ano North
  • Ahafo Ano Southeast
  • Offinso North
NDC SEATS (3)

1 Safe Seat (>80% chance of winning)

  • Sekyere Afram Plains

2 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Asawase
  • Ejura Sekyedumase
COMPETITIVE SEATS (1)

1 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • New Edubiase
FULL FORECAST

BONO REGION

NPP SEATS (7)

6 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Berekum East
  • Berekum West
  • Dormaa East
  • Jaman South
  • Sunyani East
  • Sunyani West

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Dormaa Central
NDC SEATS (2)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

2 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Dormaa West
  • Tain
COMPETITIVE SEATS (3)

3 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Banda
  • Jaman North
  • Wenchi
FULL FORECAST

BONO EAST REGION

NPP SEATS (1)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Nkoranza North
NDC SEATS (7)

5 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Atebubu Amantin
  • Kintampo North
  • Pru East
  • Sene East
  • Sene West

2 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Kintampo South
  • Pru West
COMPETITIVE SEATS (3)

3 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Nkoranza South
  • Techiman North
  • Techiman South
FULL FORECAST

CENTRAL REGION

NPP SEATS (9)

5 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Agona West
  • Assin Central
  • Assin South
  • Upper Denkyira East
  • Upper Denkyira West

4 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Asikuma Odoben Brakwa
  • Awutu Senya East
  • Effutu
  • Hemang Lower Denkyira
NDC SEATS (2)

1 Safe Seat (>80% chance of winning)

  • Ekumfi

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Abura Asebu Kwamankese
COMPETITIVE SEATS (12)

12 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Agona East
  • Ajumako Enyan Esiam
  • Assin North
  • Awutu Senya West
  • Cape Coast North
  • Cape Coast South
  • Gomoa Central
  • Gomoa East
  • Gomoa West
  • Mfantseman
  • Twifo Atii Morkwa
FULL FORECAST

EASTERN REGION

NPP SEATS (25)

24 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Abetifi
  • Abirem
  • Abuakwa North
  • Achiase
  • Akim Abuakwa South
  • Akim Oda
  • Akim Swedru
  • Akuapem North
  • Akuapem South
  • Asene Akroso Manso
  • Atiwa East
  • Atiwa West
  • Ayensuano
  • Fanteakwa South
  • Kade
  • Lower West Akim
  • Mpraeso
  • New Juaben North
  • New Juaben South
  • Nkawkaw
  • Nsawam Adoagyiri
  • Ofoase Ayirebi
  • Okere
  • Suhum

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Fanteakwa North
NDC SEATS (6)

5 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Afram Plains North
  • Afram Plains South
  • Lower Manya Krobo
  • Upper Manya Krobo
  • Yilo Krobo

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Upper West  Akim
COMPETITIVE SEATS (2)

2 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Akwatia
  • Asuogyaman
FULL FORECAST

GREATER ACCRA REGION

NPP SEATS (15)

10 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Ablekuma North
  • Ablekuma West
  • Anyaa Sowutuom
  • Dome Kwabenya
  • Okaikoi Central
  • Okaikoi South
  • Tema Central
  • Tema West
  • Trobu 
  • Weija Gbawe

5 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Ayawaso Central
  • Ayawaso West Wuogon
  • Bortianor Ngleshie Amanfro
  • Okaikoi North
  • Tema East
NDC SEATS (12)

10 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Ada
  • Ashiaman
  • Ayawaso East
  • Ayawaso North
  • Domeabra Obom
  • Kpone Katamanso
  • Ningo Prampram
  • Odododiodio
  • Sege
  • Shai Osudoku

2 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Amasaman
  • Dadekotopon
COMPETITIVE SEATS (7)

7 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Ablekuma Central
  • Ablekuma South
  • Adentan
  • Klottey-Korle
  • Krowor
  • Ledzokuku
  • Madina
FULL FORECAST

NORTH EAST REGION

NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (2)

2 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Yagaba Kubori
  • Yunyoo

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

COMPETITIVE SEATS (4)

4 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Bunkpurugu
  • Chereponi
  • Nalerigu Gambaga
  • Walewale
FULL FORECAST

NORTHERN REGION

NPP SEATS (2)

2 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Bimbilla
  • Yendi

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (8)

7 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Karaga
  • Kumbungu
  • Sagnarigu
  • Savelugu
  • Tamale Central
  • Tamale North
  • Tamale South

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Kpandai
COMPETITIVE SEATS (8)

8 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Gushiegu
  • Mion
  • Nantong
  • Saboba
  • Tatale Sanguli
  • Tolon
  • Wulensi
  • Zabzugu
FULL FORECAST

OTI REGION

NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (8)

7 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Akan
  • Biakoye
  • Buem
  • Krachi West
  • Krachi Nchumuru
  • Nkwanta North
  • Nkwanta South

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Krachi East
COMPETITIVE SEATS (0)

0 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

FULL FORECAST

SAVANNAH REGION

NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (6)

5 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Bole Bamboi
  • Damango
  • Salaga North
  • Sawla Tuna Kalba
  • Yapei Kusawgu

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Daboya Mankarigu
COMPETITIVE SEATS (1)

1 Competitive Seat (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Salaga South
FULL FORECAST

UPPER EAST REGION

NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (11)

8 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Binduri
  • Bolgatanga Central
  • Bolgatanga East
  • Builsa North
  • Builsa South
  • Chiana Paga
  • Garu
  • Nabdam

3 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Pusiga
  • Talensi
  • Zebilla
COMPETITIVE SEATS (4)

4 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Bawku Central
  • Bongo
  • Navrongo Central
  • Tempane
FULL FORECAST

UPPER WEST REGION

NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (8)

7 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Daffiama Bussie Issa
  • Jirapa
  • Lambussie
  • Lawra
  • Nadowli Kaleo
  • Nandom
  • Wa West

1 Likely Seat (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Wa Central
COMPETITIVE SEATS (3)

3 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Sissala East
  • Sissala West
  • Wa East
FULL FORECAST

VOLTA REGION

NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (18)

18 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Adaklu
  • Afadjato South
  • Agotime Ziope
  • Akatsi North
  • Akatsi South
  • Anlo
  • Central Tongu
  • Ho Central
  • Ho West
  • Hohoe
  • Keta
  • Ketu North
  • Ketu South
  • Kpando
  • North Dayi
  • North Tongu
  • South Dayi
  • South Tongu

 

COMPETITIVE SEATS (0)

0 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

FULL FORECAST

WESTERN REGION

NPP SEATS (11)

8 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Ahanta West
  • Effia
  • Essikado Ketan
  • Evalue Ajomoro Gwira
  • Kwesimintsim
  • Sekondi
  • Tarkoradi
  • Tarkwa-Nsuaem

3 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Amenfi East
  • Ellembele
  • Mpohor
NDC SEATS (2)

2 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Amenfi Central
  • Amenfi West

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

COMPETITIVE SEATS (4)

4 Competitive Seats (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Jomoro
  • Prestea Huni Valley
  • Shama
  • Wassa East
FULL FORECAST

WESTERN NORTH REGION

NPP SEATS (0)

0 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

0 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

NDC SEATS (8)

6 Safe Seats (>80% chance of winning)

  • Bia East
  • Bia West
  • Bodi
  • Juabeso
  • Sefwi Akontonmbra
  • Suaman

2 Likely Seats (> 2 in 3 chance of winning)

  • Aowin
  • Sefwi Wiawso
COMPETITIVE SEATS (1)

1 Competitive Seat (< 2 in 3 chance)

  • Bibiani Anhwiaso Bekwai

 

FULL FORECAST