Our 2020 Forecast

Here’s what our model is predicting for each candidate’s chances of winning a majority of votes cast

Updated October 15, 2020

Chances of winning the first round

  • Nana Akuffo Addo | NPP 56% 56%
  • No one wins (Runoff) 25% 25%
  • John Mahama | NDC 19% 19%
*Chances of winning the first round
LATEST UPDATES

September Poll: 1 in 4 chance of a run off

Oct 15 – There is now a 1 in 4 chance of a run-off. The race is increasingly tightening as Mahama gains ground

August poll shows a tightening race

Sep 3 – The latest update from our August poll has dramatically increased the chance of a run-off from 3.8% to 13.3%. This is largely driven by the 20% of poll respondents who remain undecided on their choice of president.

Mahama up 3 points

August 4 – Our latest update sees Mahama’s chances improving by 3 points. The model anticipates a bounce from the announcement of his running mate.

Chance of a runoff increases

July 24 – Our latest update to the model factors in the economic impact of the pandemic. Both Nana Addo and John Mahama saw slight dips in their chances while the likelihood of a run-off ticked up from 1.8% to 3.8%

Chance of run-off decreases

June 15 – Our partial forecast using the Historic Model shows a small chance of a run-off. This is largely due to how bullish the model is on Nana Addo’s chances of re-election

Our Historic Model Is Live

May 22 – Our partial forecast using only the Historic model shows Nana Addo as a likely favourite to win re-election. As we get polling data we will be periodically updating the model

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

Regional Forecast

Full forecast of each candidate’s chances of winning a majority of votes cast in each region

Updated Sep 10, 2020

Ahafo Region

“Swing region with a slight NPP advantage”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 67% 67%
  • John Mahama | NDC 21% 21%
  • Chance of a tie 12% 12%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +7.00 | NDC: -11

Ashanti Region

“NPP stronghold”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 99.8% 99.8%
  • John Mahama | NDC 0.1% 0.1%
  • Chance of a tie 0.1% 0.1%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +42 | NDC: -45

Bono Region

“Swing region with a slight NPP advantage”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 55% 55%
  • John Mahama | NDC 24% 24%
  • Chance of a tie 21% 21%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +6.00 | NDC: -10

Bono East Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 74% 74%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 19% 19%
  • Chance of a tie 7% 7%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +15 | NPP: -20

Central Region

“Swing region with no strong advantages for either party”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 47% 47%
  • John Mahama | NDC 37% 37%
  • Chance of a tie 16% 16%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +0 | NDC: -3

Eastern Region

“NPP stronghold”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 82% 82%
  • Chance of a tie 14% 14%
  • John Mahama | NDC 4% 4%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +20 | NDC: -25

Greater Accra Region

“Swing region with no strong advantages for either party”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 41% 41%
  • John Mahama | NDC 40% 40%
  • Chance of a tie 19% 19%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: 0 | NDC: -2

North East Region

“Swing region with slight NDC advantage”

  • John Mahama | NDC 71% 71%
  • Chance of a tie 26% 26%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 3% 3%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +8 | NPP: -26

Northern Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 75% 75%
  • Chance of a tie 20% 20%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 5% 5%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +15 | NPP: -25

Oti Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 82% 82%
  • Chance of a tie 9% 9%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 9% 9%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +28 | NPP: -35

Savannah Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 80% 80%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 14% 14%
  • Chance of a tie 6% 6%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +21 | NPP: -32

Upper East Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 90% 90%
  • Chance of a tie 9.7% 9.7%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 0.3% 0.3%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +16 | NPP: -41

Upper West Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 82% 82%
  • Chance of a tie 17% 17%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 1% 1%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +18 | NPP: -36

Volta Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 99.9% 99.9%
  • No one 0.00001% 0.00001%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 0.000002% 0.000002%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +77 | NPP: -83

Western Region

“Swing region with slight NPP advantage”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 71% 71%
  • Chance of a tie 17% 17%
  • John Mahama | NDC 12% 12%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +8 | NDC: -19

Western North Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 82% 82%
  • Chance of a tie 14% 14%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 4% 4%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +23 | NPP: -27

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