Our 2020 Forecast

Here’s what our model is predicting for each candidate’s chances of winning a majority of votes cast

*Based on Historic trends only | UPDATED: MAY 6 2020, 10:56 AM

Chances of winning the election

  • Nana Akuffo Addo | NPP 68.3% 68.3%
  • John Mahama | NDC 29.9% 29.9%
  • No one wins 1.8% 1.8%
*Chances of winning the first round
LATEST UPDATES

Our Historic Model Is Live

Our partial forecast using only the Historic model shows Nana Addo as a likely favourite to win re-election. As we get polling data we will be periodically updating the model

Chance of run-off decreases

Our partial forecast using the Historic Model shows a small chance of a run-off. This is largely due to how bullish the model is on Nana Addo’s chances of re-election

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Our election’s forecast uses a combination of statistical models and machine learning to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Following our successful 2016 forecast, we’ve rebuilt the 2020 model to be more robust and dynamic. This year our final forecast is generated from 3 separate models: a Historic model, a Polls model and a Composite Economic Index.

Regional Forecast

Partial forecast of each candidate’s chances of winning a majority of votes cast in each region

*Based on the Historic Model only | Updated: APR 16 9:56 AM

Ahafo Region

“Swing region with a slight NPP advantage”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 68.0% 68.0%
  • John Mahama | NDC 22.5% 22.5%
  • No one 9.5% 9.5%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +7.00 | NDC: -11

Ashanti Region

“NPP stronghold”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 99.8% 99.8%
  • John Mahama | NDC 0.1% 0.1%
  • No one 0.1% 0.1%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +42 | NDC: -45

Bono Region

“Swing region with a slight NPP advantage”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 66.3% 66.3%
  • John Mahama | NDC 24.6% 24.6%
  • No one 9.1% 9.1%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +6.00 | NDC: -10

Bono East Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 84.2% 84.2%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 8.7% 8.7%
  • No one 7.1% 7.1%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +15 | NPP: -20

Central Region

“Swing region with no strong advantages for either party”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 51.0% 51.0%
  • John Mahama | NDC 42.5% 42.5%
  • No one 6.5% 6.5%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +0 | NDC: -3

Eastern Region

“NPP stronghold”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 91.0% 91.0%
  • John Mahama | NDC 4.5% 4.5%
  • No one 4.5% 4.5%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +20 | NDC: -25

Greater Accra Region

“Swing region with no strong advantages for either party”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 49.8% 49.8%
  • John Mahama | NDC 46.0% 46.0%
  • No one 4.2% 4.2%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: 0 | NDC: -2

North East Region

“Swing region with slight NDC advantage”

  • John Mahama | NDC 71.1% 71.1%
  • No one 24.8% 24.8%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 4.0% 4.0%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +8 | NPP: -26

Northern Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 83.8% 83.8%
  • No one 11.4% 11.4%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 4.8% 4.8%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +15 | NPP: -25

Oti Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 96.8% 96.8%
  • No one 2.2% 2.2%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 1.0% 1.0%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +28 | NPP: -35

Savannah Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 91.5% 91.5%
  • No one 6.8% 6.8%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 1.8% 1.8%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +21 | NPP: -32

Upper East Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 85.3% 85.3%
  • No one 14.4% 14.4%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 0.3% 0.3%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +16 | NPP: -41

Upper West Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 88.9% 88.9%
  • No one 10.2% 10.2%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 0.9% 0.9%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +18 | NPP: -36

Volta Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 99.9% 99.9%
  • No one 0.00001% 0.00001%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 0.000002% 0.000002%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +77 | NPP: -83

Western Region

“Swing region with slight NPP advantage”

  • Nana Addo | NPP 70.7% 70.7%
  • No one 19.0% 19.0%
  • John Mahama | NDC 10.3% 10.3%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NPP: +8 | NDC: -19

Western North Region

“NDC stronghold”

  • John Mahama | NDC 93.5% 93.5%
  • Nana Addo | NPP 3.5% 3.5%
  • No one 3.0% 3.0%
Vote233 Partisan Lean: 
NDC: +23 | NPP: -27

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