Who Will Win The 2020 General Elections?

Here’s what our model is predicting for each candidate’s chances of winning

UPDATED: Feb 18 2020, 17:36 GMT
  • Nana Akuffo Addo | NPP 76.33% 76.33%
  • John Mahama | NDC 20.80% 20.80%
  • No one wins 2.87% 2.87%
  • All Others 0.001% 0.001%

John Mahama gains +2 pts in our latest forecast

UPDATED: Feb 19, 2020 | 17:00 GMT

Our latest update to the election forecast sees John Mahama’s chances jumping by 2 pts. This is a bounce from his strong debate performance last Tuesday

Chances of a draw ticks up sharply!

The latest poll numbers has made an impact on our forecast. The chances of no one winning the first round has ticked up from 8% to 11%

How does Vote233 forecast the elections?

Vote233’s forecast for Ghana’s 2020 Presidential elections uses statistical models to predict each candidate’s chances of winning the elections. Our 2020 model builds upon our successful 2016 model, but with some big changes to how the forecast is generated. This year we are computing our final forecast by combining 3 separate models: a Polls-based model, a Historic model and a Composite Economic Index model.  

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How we are forecasting the elections

Forecasting an election is never an easy task. I like to think of it as part art part science. There are many ways you can go about it, much like making a bowl of soup. Ultimately though, a good election forecast will correctly predict the likeliest outcome of an...

What would it take for a 3rd party candidate to win?

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Most competitive districts in Accra

Here are our top 10 most competitive districts in the capital:

Dr. Ndoum surges in latest Polls

Our latest poll of polls has Dr. Ndoum sitting at 5% support among likely voters

Nana Addo’s path to re-election: a closer look at our 2020 forecast

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Mahama gains +3 points in our latest 2020 Forecast

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