In part 1 of our series on the outcome of our August Poll we looked at the seven regions where our model thinks Nana Addo’s chances are improving. Let’s now turn our attention to the 4 regions where his forecasted chances have dropped a bit.
The challenging four:
- Bono – one big surprise from our model update is the drop in Nana Addo’s odds in the Bono Region from 63.8% to 55% after our August poll. Our model’s classification of the region as ’Swing’ remains unchanged but the increase in the chance of a run-off suggests that the model thinks the region is becoming more competitive.
- Central – Nana Addo’s chances have remained relatively stable in this key swing region. Prior to the forecast, our model gave him a 48.6% chance of winning the region. After the August update his chances now sit at 47%. John Mahama on the other hand saw a significant dip in his chances here from 43.4% to 37%.
- Eastern – the biggest surprise coming from our model update is the 9 point drop in Nana Addo’s chances in the NPP’s strongest region. Prior to the update, Nana Addo’s chances in the region rested at 91%. It’s now at 82%. Much of the shift went towards the chances of a tie (which now sits at 15%).
- Greater Accra – no surprises here as a plurality of our poll respondents who were undecided came from Greater Accra. Nana Addo’s chances in the capital region is now at 41%; down from a high of 47.5%. The chance of a tie in Accra is now at 18%.
- Overall, Nana Addo’s chances improved in 7 regions, dropped in 4 and remained relatively unchanged in 5. This is why our forecast gives him a slight edge in the December polls. As of writing, our model gives him a 6 in 10 chance of winning the elections — not a bad place to be 3 months out from the election.
- The challenge for Nana Addo is to fight off any attempts by John Mahama to make the any more competitive. The closer his chances get to 50%, the more unpredictable the race becomes.
