Our regional forecast is now updated with the results of the August Poll and Nana Addo saw his chances improve in 7 out of the 16 regions.
Nana’s lucky seven:
- Bono East – Interestingly enough, the biggest jump for Nana came from Bono East where his chances climbed from 8.7% prior to the update to 19%. Keep in mind, Bono East is an NDC stronghold so the model’s conclusion from the poll is that NPP is getting more competitive here.
- Ahafo – Nana Addo’s chances ticked up slightly from 65.5% to 67%. This is one region where John Mahama saw a 3 point dip in his chances.
- Oti – Another surprise from the update. Nana Addo’s 1% chance of winning the region has now climbed to 7%. The model still expects Mahama to win the region with an 82% chance but that’s a big drop from the 97% chance he initially had.
- Savannah – Nana Addo’s chances increased from 1.8% to 14% while John Mahama’s chances dropped from 95% to 80%.This is the 3rd NDC stronghold where our model thinks the NPP’s chances might be getting better.
- Upper West – the fourth NDC stronghold to see Nana Addo’s chances tick up very slightly. Prior to the update Nana had a 0.9% chance of winning the region. He now sits at 1.3%. It’s still very small odds but what’s even more surprising is the 10 point shift from Mahama’s chances towards that of a tie. The model now thinks there is a 17% chance of a tie in Upper West (up from 7% prior to the update)
- Western – we mentioned the slight boost to Nana Addo’s chances in a prior article. He now enjoys a 71% chance of winning the Western Region which makes it his 3rd strongest region this year after Ashanti and Eastern.
- Western North – the model assigned Nana Addo a very small bounce in this NDC stronghold. His chances have now climbed to 4%, up from 3% prior to the update. On the counter, Mahama’s chances have dropped from 96.5% to 82% while the chance of a tie has climbed from 0.1% to 14%. The election is indeed tightening up.