Our partial forecast for the parliamentary race in the Bono Region is live and it shows a tight race ahead for the opposition NDC. This fits well with our regional forecast for the Presidential race which gives Nana Addo an overall 66.3% chance of winning the region.
The map:
- Out of a total of 12 seats in the Bono Region, our Historic Model expects the NPP to easily win 6 of them. These are all constituencies where the governing party has a greater than 80% chance of winning.
- The remaining 6 constituencies are all competitive – meaning that the NDC doesn’t have a single seat that it can count in its ‘safe’ column.
- To have 50% of the region’s seats be competitve is not all that surprising. The Bono Region is one of 6 swing regions in the country.
- Our Regional Partisan Lean rates it as a ‘swing region with slight advantages for the NPP’ while our Competitiveness Index rates it as the 3rd most competitive region in the country.
- If the NDC can win all 6 competitive races, that will give the party a great shot at winning the region.
- That said, our current forecast gives the party very slight odds of winning Jaman North and Dormaa West – only 2 of the 6 competitive seats.
- Banda and Tain are effectively toss-up races. Either party has an equal chance while Wenchi and Dormaa Central are going to be competitive but with slight advantages for the NPP.
