Our partial forecast for the parliamentary race in the Bono Region is live and it shows a tight race ahead for the opposition NDC. This fits well with our regional forecast for the Presidential race which gives Nana Addo an overall 66.3% chance of winning the region.

The map:

  • Out of a total of 12 seats in the Bono Region, our Historic Model expects the NPP to easily win 6 of them. These are all constituencies where the governing party has a greater than 80% chance of winning.

  • The remaining 6 constituencies are all competitive – meaning that the NDC doesn’t have a single seat that it can count in its ‘safe’ column.

  • To have 50% of the region’s seats be competitve is not all that surprising. The Bono Region is one of 6 swing regions in the country.

  • If the NDC can win all 6 competitive races, that will give the party a great shot at winning the region.

  • That said, our current forecast gives the party very slight odds of winning Jaman North and Dormaa West – only 2 of the 6 competitive seats.

  • Banda and Tain are effectively toss-up races. Either party has an equal chance while Wenchi and Dormaa Central are going to be competitive but with slight advantages for the NPP.

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