Electoral Trends: who is swinging and who is not?

In part 1 of this series, we looked at the potential for the Northern region to become a swing region and for the Western Region to become an NPP stronghold if trends continue. Let’s turn our attention to Ahafo, Bono and North East Region in this piece. 

Where they’re headed: 

• Ahafo used to be part of the reliably ‘swing’ Brong Ahafo region. Today, our model classifies it still as a ‘swing’ region albeit with a slight NPP advantage. 

• Our Presidential forecast gives Nana Addo a 67.5% chance of winning the region, making it a likely NPP win. Our parliamentary forecast counts 4 of the region’s 6 seats as SAFE or LIKELY for the NPP. 

• Like the Western Region, if the NPP is able to win more than 55% of the region’s votes this year, that will be enough to tip it into the stronghold column. 

• Bono Region presents much of the same profile as Ahafo Region. Our Presidential forecast rates it as another swing region with a slight NPP advantage. At 65.8% chance, Nana Addo has the better odds of winning this region but it’s going to be a bit more competitive than Ahafo Region. Once again if the NPP can win more than 55% of the votes in the region, that will be enough for our model to classify it as a stronghold. 

• In forecasting both the Presidential and Parliamentary races, we did not anticipate finding any swing regions in the northern half of Ghana; given how reliably the Northern Region used to be for the NDC. Following the 2018 referendum, we now have a North East Region that is poised to be fairly competitive this year. 

• Our model gives John Mahama a 67.5% chance of winning the region, roughly the same chances as Nana Addo has in Ahafo Region. If the NDC wins by greater than 10 points, then it’s likely the region is shifting towards the party’s stronghold. However, anything short of the 55% threshold will suggest the party is on a slide towards becoming a swing region. 

• In many ways, this year’s elections could turn out to be the turning point in an electoral realignment of our democracy. Stay tuned for more in the coming months.