It was just 2 weeks ago that the exponential growth curve of Covid-19 cases in Ghana showed a doubling rate of every 9 days. However, with a spike in recoveries and a flattening of the rate at which new cases are now being confirmed, we are now seeing the doubling rate lengthen to 19 days.
What it implies:
- We are now on day 72 of tracking Covid-19 cases in Ghana, and the curve is showing encouraging signs of a slow-down.
- When we initially fit a curve to more than 60 days of data, we saw a sharp uptick to the right – revealing an exponential growth rate of cases doubling every 9 days.
- However, with very robust testing and a consistent surge in recoveries we are starting to see a flattening of the curve and a lengthening of the growth rate to 19 days.
- From our analysis of the share of active cases relative to the share of recoveries, it appears the turning point occurred around May 13th – 14th.
- While this appears to be good news, the turning point might prove to be a local maxima and not a global one. We will need another week of tracking the data to begin to feel confident that the flattening trend is holding steady.
- If the trend holds, expect the doubling rate to lengthen even further to a month and beyond.
- However, if there is another big surge in cases then this doubling rate will contract and the growth curve will shift towards a more exponential rise.