Every 9 days, the number of confirmed cases in Ghana doubles. At this rate, we should see 20,000 cases in less than 3 weeks.

Here’s how:

  • Ghana, like many other impacted countries is seeing an exponential growth in the number of cases. (See the graph above)

  • We fit a curve to more than 60 days of data on the virus’s spread in Ghana and the resulting graph very much fits the pattern we’re seeing elsewhere.

  • One big caveat is that our estimation of when cases will double assumes much doesn’t change moving forward.

  • As testing, contact tracing and general mitigation efforts are stepped up, we should see a drop in cases and as such the doubling rate to lengthen.

  • While we can’t predict when the outbreak will peak in Ghana, we can tell when the virus’s spread is slowing by looking at the rate at which confirmed cases are doubling.

  • As the spread begins to slow down, expect this number to increase. If the virus begins to spread even faster, expect the number to drop.
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