In part 1 of this article, we established that the Central region counts 70% of its constituencies as swing, with only 30% being a sure bet for NPP or NDC.
The big picture:
- Of the 16 swing constituencies in the Central Region, 9 of them tilt slightly towards the NPP while 7 lean slightly towards NDC
- This helps explain why the Central Region is slightly less competitive than Greater Accra and yet has a larger share of its constituencies classified as swing.
- Per our Constituency Partisan Lean, the NPP has an average lean of +2.7 in the 9 swing constituencies that tilt towards it.
- The NDC has an average lean of +2.9 in the 7 swing constituencies that tilt towards it.
- At the time of writing this article, our partial regional forecast gives the NPP only a 49.7% chance of winning the majority of votes in the region.