With the exception of Greater Accra, the Central Region is the only other region that our forecast model classifies as a pure swing region; with no strong advantages for either the NPP or NDC.
Here’s why:
- While the Central region has far fewer people than Greater Accra or Ashanti, due to its role as a swing region it ends up having a big impact on the final outcome of the elections.
- Of the 23 constituencies in the region, the NDC counts only 1 as a stronghold, while the NPP counts 6 as strongholds.
- That leaves a total of 16 (~70%) purely swing constituencies in the region for the parties to fight for.
- With 30% of its constituencies being a sure bet for either party, the Central region has relatively more swing areas within it than Greater Accra. For comparison, about 58% of constituencies in the capital region are strongholds of either parties.
- That said, the Central Region is not as competitive as the capital region. We explore more of that in part 2 of this article
