With the exception of Greater Accra, the Central Region is the only other region that our forecast model classifies as a pure swing region; with no strong advantages for either the NPP or NDC. 

Here’s why:

  • While the Central region has far fewer people than Greater Accra or Ashanti, due to its role as a swing region it ends up having a big impact on the final outcome of the elections.

  • Of the 23 constituencies in the region, the NDC counts only 1 as a stronghold, while the NPP counts 6 as strongholds.

  • That leaves a total of 16 (~70%) purely swing constituencies in the region for the parties to fight for. 

  • That said, the Central Region is not as competitive as the capital region. We explore more of that in part 2 of this article

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