6 new regions: who will win them?

6 new regions: who will win them?

One of the most exciting aspects of this year’s election is the question of who will win the 6 newly created regions. This is exactly the kind of question we love to spend hours analysing and building models to answer.  What we are forecasting: Ahafo Region: our...
The least competitive regions in 2020

The least competitive regions in 2020

When it comes to predicting who will win the elections, some regions are very easy to forecast. Having voted for the same party in each election, these “strongholds” are the least competitive regions and in some ways, not very much worth fighting for.  Here are the...
The most competitive regions in 2020

The most competitive regions in 2020

To determine which regions will be most competitive in 2020, we analyzed historic voting patterns in each region and compared that to our regional partisan leans.  Here are the top 5: #1 – Greater Accra: with a competitiveness score of 98.5, the capital region...
Introducing our Regional Competitive Index

Introducing our Regional Competitive Index

You’ve probably heard of stronghold vs swing regions. While these two classifiers present somewhat of a binary choice, the reality of how people vote in a region is a bit more nuanced. To that end, we are launching a brand new index that ranks how competitive...
Electoral Trends: where are the regions going?

What is a Regional Partisan Lean?

A cornerstone of our ability to accurately forecast the outcome of the Presidential elections is a simple concept we call “Regional Partisan Lean”. What it means: Regional Partisan Lean is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given...