Continuing our deep dive on the outcome of our August poll and it’s implications for the December elections, we now turn our attention to the 12 regions where our model downgraded Mahama’s chances. The unlucky dozen: Ahafo – Mahama saw a slight dip in his...
As of this writing, John Mahama’s chance of a first round win per our model is at 27%; down from a high of 31.4%. This drop is entirely from our August Poll where a combined 28% of voters were either undecided or planning to vote for a 3rd party — both factors...
In part 1 of our series on the outcome of our August Poll we looked at the seven regions where our model thinks Nana Addo’s chances are improving. Let’s now turn our attention to the 4 regions where his forecasted chances have dropped a bit. The challenging four: Bono...
It took some time but our regional forecast is now updated with the results of our August Poll. Here’s where things stand. Highlights: Overall, the shifts in probabilities at the regional level is well in line with what we saw at the national level. Most...
In part 1 of this series, we looked at the potential for the Northern region to become a swing region and for the Western Region to become an NPP stronghold if trends continue. Let’s turn our attention to Ahafo, Bono and North East Region in this piece. Where...
Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of...
Perhaps more than any other region in Ghana, the capital region is what comes to most minds when one mentions the concept of a swing region. However, in modeling this year’s parliamentary race we found out that the region lags Central Region in the number of seats...
In part 1 of this series, we looked at the state of the parliamentary race in 6 out of the 12 competitive seats in the Central Region. Let’s continue with our analysis of the remaining six seats. How they stack up: Gomoa Central – the incumbent NPP has a...
More than any other region in this year’s elections, the Central Region is poised to be the most competitive and potentially the tipping point for deciding the winner of the elections. Of the 23 seats in the region, 12 are rated by our model to be competitive...
Our partial forecast for the parliamentary race in the Bono Region is live and it shows a tight race ahead for the opposition NDC. This fits well with our regional forecast for the Presidential race which gives Nana Addo an overall 66.3% chance of winning the region....
Our partial forecast for parliamentary seats in Ashanti Region is now live and as is to be expected, it shows a very favourable map for the NPP along with 6 competitive races where the NDC may have a shot at winning. The details: Out of the 47 seats in the Ashanti...
In part 1 of our series on the regional distribution of Covid-19 cases in Ghana, we established a strong correlation between population density and the number of confirmed cases in a region. In this piece, we look at the link between urbanisation and the regional case...
From the regional distribution of Covid-19 data, more than 87% of Ghana’s case load is concentrated in Greater Accra and Ashanti Regions. Here’s why: To better understand the disparity in the distribution of cases among the 16 regions, we run a number of...
One of the most exciting aspects of this year’s election is the question of who will win the 6 newly created regions. This is exactly the kind of question we love to spend hours analysing and building models to answer. What we are forecasting: Ahafo Region: our...
When it comes to predicting who will win the elections, some regions are very easy to forecast. Having voted for the same party in each election, these “strongholds” are the least competitive regions and in some ways, not very much worth fighting for. Here are the...
To determine which regions will be most competitive in 2020, we analyzed historic voting patterns in each region and compared that to our regional partisan leans. Here are the top 5: #1 – Greater Accra: with a competitiveness score of 98.5, the capital region...
You’ve probably heard of stronghold vs swing regions. While these two classifiers present somewhat of a binary choice, the reality of how people vote in a region is a bit more nuanced. To that end, we are launching a brand new index that ranks how competitive...
A cornerstone of our ability to accurately forecast the outcome of the Presidential elections is a simple concept we call “Regional Partisan Lean”. What it means: Regional Partisan Lean is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given...
In part 1 of this article, we established that the Central region counts 70% of its constituencies as swing, with only 30% being a sure bet for NPP or NDC. The big picture: Of the 16 swing constituencies in the Central Region, 9 of them tilt slightly...
