In part 1 of this series, we outlined two ways by which an independent parliamentary candidate can dramatically alter the outcome of constituency level elections. In this piece, we dig deeper into the different competitive profiles of constituencies to see which ones...
One of the most surprising findings from modeling the parliamentary race is the relative power of independent candidates to dramatically change electoral outcomes in a given constituency. Since the dawn of the 4th republic, no independent presidential candidate has...
In part 1 of this series, we explored the share of support that a 3rd party needs to gain in order to be an effective player in how the nation is governed. In this piece, we turn out attention to more tactical approaches for realizing this goal and consider whether or...
The electoral history of Ghana’s 4th republic shows a gradual waning in support for the smaller parties that seek to challenge the dominance of the NPP and NDC. In 1996, the PNC won about 3% of all votes cast. In 2016, their share of the vote was a paltry 0.2%. Rather...
2016 was not a good year for the NDC. Not only did the party lose the presidency; it also lost a significant number of seats in parliament. Today, Ghana’s legislature is dominated by 169 NPP MPs. The NDC, by contrast holds only 106 seats. That’s a 63 seat...
Perhaps more than any other region in Ghana, the capital region is what comes to most minds when one mentions the concept of a swing region. However, in modeling this year’s parliamentary race we found out that the region lags Central Region in the number of seats...
It’s July 2020 and the NPP is heading into an election holding 169 out of the 275 seats in parliament. 2016 was indeed a great year for the ruling party. So, for 2020 we decided to see what the parliamentary map looks like and if the NPP will be able to hold...
In part 1 of this series, we looked at the state of the parliamentary race in 6 out of the 12 competitive seats in the Central Region. Let’s continue with our analysis of the remaining six seats. How they stack up: Gomoa Central – the incumbent NPP has a...
More than any other region in this year’s elections, the Central Region is poised to be the most competitive and potentially the tipping point for deciding the winner of the elections. Of the 23 seats in the region, 12 are rated by our model to be competitive...
Our regional forecast has been live for some time now and so it’s only proper we follow up with a look at all 275 constituencies. Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing our partial forecast for parliament starting with the Ahafo region. For now,...
