Our regional forecast is now updated with the results of the August Poll and Nana Addo saw his chances improve in 7 out of the 16 regions. Nana’s lucky seven: Bono East – Interestingly enough, the biggest jump for Nana came from Bono East where his chances...
It’s July 2020 and the NPP is heading into an election holding 169 out of the 275 seats in parliament. 2016 was indeed a great year for the ruling party. So, for 2020 we decided to see what the parliamentary map looks like and if the NPP will be able to hold...
For the first time in Ghana’s history since the return to multi-party democracy, a sitting incumbent president will face off against his predecessor. For Nana Addo this election is both a refrendum on his performance over the past 3 years and his handling of the...
Parts 1 and 2 of this series established voter turnout and economic conditions respectively as follow-on effects from Covid-19 that will shape the outcome of the December elections. In this final installment in our series we turn our attention to a less rigidly...
In part 1 of this series, we highlighted how the Covid-19 outbreak could yield a reduction in voter turnout come December. In this piece, we analyse the effect of the outbreak through the lens of the economic impact it will have. At a glance: All around the world the...
Before the Covid-19 outbreak in Ghana, the December elections were going to be historic in one sense: a rematch between a one-term former president and the sitting incumbent. Now, with more than 6,800 cases in Ghana the Covid-19 outbreak adds an extra layer of...
In 2016, John Mahama made history as the first incumbent president to lose after one term in office since Ghana returned to multi-party democracy in 1992. So, what went wrong for the NDC? There are many theories one could put forth as reasons why the NDC lost. Some of...
A cornerstone of our ability to accurately forecast the outcome of the Presidential elections is a simple concept we call “Regional Partisan Lean”. What it means: Regional Partisan Lean is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given...
In part 1 of this article, we established that the Central region counts 70% of its constituencies as swing, with only 30% being a sure bet for NPP or NDC. The big picture: Of the 16 swing constituencies in the Central Region, 9 of them tilt slightly...
With the exception of Greater Accra, the Central Region is the only other region that our forecast model classifies as a pure swing region; with no strong advantages for either the NPP or NDC. Here’s why: While the Central region has far fewer people than...
In part 1 of this article, we outlined how the inability of either party to dominate the capital region has led to it being the major swing region in the country. Let’s dive deeper into the constituency-level data. Diving deeper: Of the 34 constituencies in the...
More than any other region in Ghana, the Greater Accra Region has the largest impact on the outcome of our Presidential elections. Here’s why: It is one of the 2 most populous regions in Ghana (the other one is the Ashanti Region) It is decidedly a swing region,...
In part 1 of this article series, we defined a stronghold as a region that has been consistently dominated by one party in successive elections. Let’s go deeper into the role strongholds play in winning elections. The role they play in winning: A stronghold...
You may have heard the terms “stronghold” and “swing regions” but what are they and why do they matter so much to the outcome of an election. Why they matter: A party’s stronghold is a region in which a big majority of voters consistently...
