2016 was not a good year for the NDC. Not only did the party lose the presidency; it also lost a significant number of seats in parliament. Today, Ghana’s legislature is dominated by 169 NPP MPs. The NDC, by contrast holds only 106 seats. That’s a 63 seat...
In part 1 of this series, we started to make the case for John Mahama to pick a Vice Presidential candidate from one of the NDC’s strongholds rather than from a swing region. In this piece, we dive deeper into which regions should top the list of factors to...
How much does the choice of a VP matter? From a political standpoint, it is the most important decision a presidential candidate has to make. A running mate needs to be someone who is qualified and ready to be president on day 1. From an electoral standpoint, well,...
In part 1 of our series on each party’s path to victory we looked at the combination of regions that Nana Addo and the NPP need to win to stay in power. In this piece, we turn our attention to John Mahama who is attempting to stage a historic comeback. His path:...
Before the Covid-19 outbreak in Ghana, the December elections were going to be historic in one sense: a rematch between a one-term former president and the sitting incumbent. Now, with more than 6,800 cases in Ghana the Covid-19 outbreak adds an extra layer of...
In 2016, John Mahama made history as the first incumbent president to lose after one term in office since Ghana returned to multi-party democracy in 1992. So, what went wrong for the NDC? There are many theories one could put forth as reasons why the NDC lost. Some of...
A cornerstone of our ability to accurately forecast the outcome of the Presidential elections is a simple concept we call “Regional Partisan Lean”. What it means: Regional Partisan Lean is an estimation of the margin by which a party should win or lose in any given...
In part 1 of this article, we established that the Central region counts 70% of its constituencies as swing, with only 30% being a sure bet for NPP or NDC. The big picture: Of the 16 swing constituencies in the Central Region, 9 of them tilt slightly...
With the exception of Greater Accra, the Central Region is the only other region that our forecast model classifies as a pure swing region; with no strong advantages for either the NPP or NDC. Here’s why: While the Central region has far fewer people than...
In part 1 of this article, we outlined how the inability of either party to dominate the capital region has led to it being the major swing region in the country. Let’s dive deeper into the constituency-level data. Diving deeper: Of the 34 constituencies in the...
More than any other region in Ghana, the Greater Accra Region has the largest impact on the outcome of our Presidential elections. Here’s why: It is one of the 2 most populous regions in Ghana (the other one is the Ashanti Region) It is decidedly a swing region,...
In part 1 of this article series, we defined a stronghold as a region that has been consistently dominated by one party in successive elections. Let’s go deeper into the role strongholds play in winning elections. The role they play in winning: A stronghold...
You may have heard the terms “stronghold” and “swing regions” but what are they and why do they matter so much to the outcome of an election. Why they matter: A party’s stronghold is a region in which a big majority of voters consistently...
