Continuing our deep dive on the outcome of our August poll and it’s implications for the December elections, we now turn our attention to the 12 regions where our model downgraded Mahama’s chances. The unlucky dozen: Ahafo – Mahama saw a slight dip in his...
As of this writing, John Mahama’s chance of a first round win per our model is at 27%; down from a high of 31.4%. This drop is entirely from our August Poll where a combined 28% of voters were either undecided or planning to vote for a 3rd party — both factors...
In part 1 of our series on the outcome of our August Poll we looked at the seven regions where our model thinks Nana Addo’s chances are improving. Let’s now turn our attention to the 4 regions where his forecasted chances have dropped a bit. The challenging four: Bono...
It took some time but our regional forecast is now updated with the results of our August Poll. Here’s where things stand. Highlights: Overall, the shifts in probabilities at the regional level is well in line with what we saw at the national level. Most...
Our forecast model is finally updated with the results of our August poll and the result is a fairly sizable swing in the chances of both candidates as well as the probability of a run-off. The update: After the update, both Nana Addo and John Mahama saw small...
In part 1 of this series, we looked at the potential for the Northern region to become a swing region and for the Western Region to become an NPP stronghold if trends continue. Let’s turn our attention to Ahafo, Bono and North East Region in this piece. Where...
It’s been a month since we last updated our Presidential forecast, and with only 136 days to go to the elections we thought it’s about time to take another look at the state of the race. The big takeaways: Our latest update to the elections forecast is...
Our partial forecast for the parliamentary race in the Bono Region is live and it shows a tight race ahead for the opposition NDC. This fits well with our regional forecast for the Presidential race which gives Nana Addo an overall 66.3% chance of winning the region....
Our partial forecast for parliamentary seats in Ashanti Region is now live and as is to be expected, it shows a very favourable map for the NPP along with 6 competitive races where the NDC may have a shot at winning. The details: Out of the 47 seats in the Ashanti...
Instead of predicting the exact share of votes a candidate will get in the elections, our models compute the chance that that candidate will win 50% + 1 votes. This is what we call a probabilistic forecast and it’s very different from predicting how many votes a...
Our regional forecast has been live for some time now and so it’s only proper we follow up with a look at all 275 constituencies. Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing our partial forecast for parliament starting with the Ahafo region. For now,...
In part 1 of our series on each party’s path to victory we looked at the combination of regions that Nana Addo and the NPP need to win to stay in power. In this piece, we turn our attention to John Mahama who is attempting to stage a historic comeback. His path:...
For the first time in Ghana’s history since the return to multi-party democracy, a sitting incumbent president will face off against his predecessor. For Nana Addo this election is both a refrendum on his performance over the past 3 years and his handling of the...
While our Historic Model is finely tuned to generate a forecast based on past data, the Polls Model does its work using only data from the present. How it works: Through the Vote233 mobile app, we are conducting a series of online polls to measure voter support and...
Our 2020 forecast is generated by a model that blends data from the past with data from the present. The parts of the model that learns from the past is what we call the Historic Model. How it works: Our Historic model is made from 2 sub-models that detect voting...
Forecasting an election is never an easy task. I like to think of it as part art part science. There are many ways you can go about it, depending on the type of outcome one is looking to predict. Ultimately though, a good election forecast will correctly predict the...
