Our September poll is now complete and the results were fairly surprising. The poll was conducted from September 18th to October 1st by phone and online, using a panel of 762 registered voters. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4. The Results: Nana Addo...
Continuing our deep dive on the outcome of our August poll and it’s implications for the December elections, we now turn our attention to the 12 regions where our model downgraded Mahama’s chances. The unlucky dozen: Ahafo – Mahama saw a slight dip in his...
As of this writing, John Mahama’s chance of a first round win per our model is at 27%; down from a high of 31.4%. This drop is entirely from our August Poll where a combined 28% of voters were either undecided or planning to vote for a 3rd party — both factors...
In part 1 of our series on the outcome of our August Poll we looked at the seven regions where our model thinks Nana Addo’s chances are improving. Let’s now turn our attention to the 4 regions where his forecasted chances have dropped a bit. The challenging four: Bono...
Our regional forecast is now updated with the results of the August Poll and Nana Addo saw his chances improve in 7 out of the 16 regions. Nana’s lucky seven: Bono East – Interestingly enough, the biggest jump for Nana came from Bono East where his chances...
It took some time but our regional forecast is now updated with the results of our August Poll. Here’s where things stand. Highlights: Overall, the shifts in probabilities at the regional level is well in line with what we saw at the national level. Most...
Our forecast model is finally updated with the results of our August poll and the result is a fairly sizable swing in the chances of both candidates as well as the probability of a run-off. The update: After the update, both Nana Addo and John Mahama saw small...
The biggest piece of news from our August poll is the relatively large number of undecided voters 3 months away from Election Day. The 20% of voters who remain undecided will effectively decide the outcome of the election depend on which way the majority of them...
Two weeks and 516 responses later, we now have the results of our August Opinion Poll and there were definitely some minor surprises. Contrary to some of the polls that other outlets have published, our poll revealed about 20% of voters are still undecided!...
The results of our August Poll is in and well, there was quite some news. The national poll was conducted using a combination of phone calls (live caller) and online surveys from August 22nd to September 5. A total of 516 responses were collected across all 16 regions...
In part 1 of this series, we outlined two ways by which an independent parliamentary candidate can dramatically alter the outcome of constituency level elections. In this piece, we dig deeper into the different competitive profiles of constituencies to see which ones...
In part 1 of this series, we looked at the potential for the Northern region to become a swing region and for the Western Region to become an NPP stronghold if trends continue. Let’s turn our attention to Ahafo, Bono and North East Region in this piece. Where...
A core part of our elections forecast model is the notion of ‘strongholds’ and ‘swing regions’. This same notion applies to the parliamentary race at the constituency level. Peel back the layers though and what you find at the root of the bifurcation is the relative...
One of the most surprising findings from modeling the parliamentary race is the relative power of independent candidates to dramatically change electoral outcomes in a given constituency. Since the dawn of the 4th republic, no independent presidential candidate has...
Here at Vote233, we are big believers in the concept of ‘Swing Regions’ versus ‘Strongholds’. This notion that some regions are reliable predictable while others aren’t (when it comes to elections), is deeply baked into our elections forecast model. You can think of...
In part 1 of this series, we explored the share of support that a 3rd party needs to gain in order to be an effective player in how the nation is governed. In this piece, we turn out attention to more tactical approaches for realizing this goal and consider whether or...
For some Ghanaians, having to choose between the NPP and NDC presents a limited set of options that’s far from ideal. There are those who do not see the hold both parties have over the nation to be a positive thing. Certainly, that percentage of voters seeking a...
The electoral history of Ghana’s 4th republic shows a gradual waning in support for the smaller parties that seek to challenge the dominance of the NPP and NDC. In 1996, the PNC won about 3% of all votes cast. In 2016, their share of the vote was a paltry 0.2%. Rather...
2016 was not a good year for the NDC. Not only did the party lose the presidency; it also lost a significant number of seats in parliament. Today, Ghana’s legislature is dominated by 169 NPP MPs. The NDC, by contrast holds only 106 seats. That’s a 63 seat...
Perhaps more than any other region in Ghana, the capital region is what comes to most minds when one mentions the concept of a swing region. However, in modeling this year’s parliamentary race we found out that the region lags Central Region in the number of seats...
